Prediction of the impact of climate change on Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. et Cham. and the feasibility of assisted migration
Por:
Cruzado-Vargas, AL, Lindig-Cisneros, R, Blanco-Garcia, A, Lopez-Toledo, L, Gomez-Romero, M, Montppellier, ED, Sáenz-Romero, C
Publicada:
1 ene 2025
Resumen:
Introduction. Climate change is causing a mismatch between populations and areas where the climate is suitable for them. Objective. To determine the effect of climate transfer distance (CTD = planting site climate-seed source climate) on provenances of Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. et Cham. Materials and methods. A trial was established using 11 provenances of A. religiosa, originating from an altitudinal gradient (3 000-3 550 m elevation) in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve. The seedlings were planted at three elevations: 3 400 m (to estimate the feasibility of assisted migration), 3 000 m (reference site) and 2 600 m (to visualize the impacts of climate change). Survival, height increase, and productivity index were evaluated 28 months after planting. Results. The most important climatic variable for estimating the effect of climate transfer distance (CTD) was the aridity index of the cold and dry season (November-February). Survival, height increase, and productivity index showed contrasting results: a) 3 400 m = 95 %, 31 cm, and 6.4; b) 3 000 m = 91.6 %, 87 cm, and 14.7; c) 2 600 m = 5.7 %, 63 cm, and 5.2, respectively. The latter site has higher temperatures (+1.8 degrees C) and lower precipitation (-14 %) compared to the reference site. Conclusions. Assisted migration of A. religiosa to higher elevation could be viable to offset climate change effects at the Monarch butterfly's habitats. A massive seedling mortality is expected with a +1.8 degrees C increase in temperature and a 14 % decrease in precipitation compared to the reference site.
Filiaciones:
Univ Michoacana San Nicolas Hidalgo UMSNH, Inst Invest Agr & Forestales, San Juanito Itzicuaro S-N, Morelia 58330, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Invest Ecosistemas & Sustentabil, Antigua Carretera Patzcuaro 8701, Morelia 58190, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Michoacana San Nicolas Hidalgo UMSNH, Fac Biol, Edificio R Planta Baja,Francisco J Mug S-N, Morelia 58030, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Michoacana San Nicolas Hidalgo UMSNH, Inst Invest Recursos Nat, Ave San Juanito Itzicuaro S-N, Morelia 58330, Michoacan, Mexico
Secretaria Ciencia Human Tecnol & Innovac SECIHTI, Mexico City 03940, Mexico
Secretaria Ciencia Human Tecnol Innovac SECIHTI, Lab Nacl Biol Cambio Climat LaNBioCC, Mexico City, Mexico
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