Linking Climate and Demography to Predict Population Dynamics and Persistence Under Global Change
Por:
Williams J.L., Angert A.L., Compagnoni A., Campbell A., DeMarche M.L., Evans M.E.K., Fowler J.C., González E.J., Iler A.M., Loesberg J.A., Louthan A.M., Martin A.B., Moutouama J.K., Nordstrom S.W., Petry W.K., Sen B., Sheth S.N., Miller T.E.X.
Publicada:
1 ene 2025
Resumen:
Predicting the effects of climate change on plant and animal populations is an urgent challenge for understanding the fate of biodiversity under global change. At the surface, quantifying how climate drives the vital rates that underlie population dynamics appears simple, yet many decisions are required to connect climate to demographic data. Competing approaches have emerged in the literature with little consensus around best practices. Here we provide a practical guide for how to best link vital rates to climate for the purposes of inference and projection of population dynamics. We first describe the sources of demographic and climate data underlying population models. We then focus on best practices to model the relationships between vital rates and climate, highlighting what we can learn from mechanistic and phenomenological models. Finally, we discuss the challenges of prediction and forecasting in the face of uncertainty about climate-demographic relationships as well as future climate. We conclude by suggesting ways forward to build this field of research into one that makes robust forecasts of population persistence, with opportunities for synthesis across species. © 2025 The Author(s). Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Filiaciones:
Williams J.L.:
Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Angert A.L.:
Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Compagnoni A.:
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Leipzig, Germany
Campbell A.:
Department of BioSciences, Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States
DeMarche M.L.:
Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States
Evans M.E.K.:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Fowler J.C.:
Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States
González E.J.:
Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, México City, México
Iler A.M.:
Negaunee Institute of Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, IL, United States
Loesberg J.A.:
Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Louthan A.M.:
Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States
Martin A.B.:
Department of BioSciences, Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States
Moutouama J.K.:
Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Nordstrom S.W.:
Population Research Center, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
Petry W.K.:
Department of Plant & Microbial Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
Sen B.:
Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD, United States
Sheth S.N.:
Department of Plant & Microbial Biology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
Miller T.E.X.:
Department of BioSciences, Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States
Green Submitted, hybrid, All Open Access; Green Open Access; Hybrid Gold Open Access
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