A warming ocean threatens mangrove restoration targets and deepens global inequities in ecosystem service losses*
Por:
Bastien-Olvera, BA, Aburto-Oropeza, O, Favoretto, F, Amaya, DJ, Urbano, EP, Brander, LM, Ricke, K
Publicada:
30 sep 2025
Resumen:
Global efforts to restore mangrove coverage face a growing but underexplored threat from a warming ocean, jeopardizing the future benefits mangroves provide. Using high-resolution global data across 1 degrees grid cells, we assess how climatic and socioeconomic factors influence mangrove dynamics. We find that mangroves are depleted in lower-income regions, but eventually restored as income rises. Similarly, mangroves in cooler areas may benefit from warming temperatures up to a threshold beyond which damage occurs. Although increasing wealth alone could have led to substantial global mangrove recovery by 2100, warming sea surface temperatures stall this progress-erasing the gains that would have occurred under socioeconomic change alone. By the end of the century, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and Representative Concentration Pathway 7.0 scenarios, mangrove areas could be 150 000 hectares smaller than a no climate change baseline. We estimate annual welfare losses from reduced cultural, provisioning, and regulating services to reach 28 billion USD by 2100. Regional disparities are pronounced: Asia bears 65% of losses, followed by the Middle East and Africa (19%), Latin America and the Caribbean (13%), and OECD countries (3%).
Filiaciones:
Bastien-Olvera, BA:
Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92093 USA
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, Milan, Italy
Aburto-Oropeza, O:
Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92093 USA
Favoretto, F:
Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92093 USA
Amaya, DJ:
NOAA, Phys Sci Lab, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA
Urbano, EP:
Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA USA
Brander, LM:
Leibniz Univ Hannover, Inst Earth Syst Sci IESW, Hannover, Germany
Ricke, K:
Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92093 USA
Univ Calif San Diego, Sch Global Policy & Strategy, San Diego, CA USA
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