Cartografía y modelado de la susceptibilidad a procesos de remoción en masa en la cuenca del río Xopanac, Puebla, México, utilizando regresión logística múltiple
Por:
Paulín G.L., Salinas L.A., Quesada F.A., Miguel R.C.
Publicada:
1 ene 2025
Resumen:
Massive landslide processes (MSLPs) constitute an important natural hazard for human settlements and their productive activities, especially in mountainous areas where abrupt relief, precipitation and/or earthquakes facilitate the fall or landslide of materials. In Mexico, these areas are generally difficult to access and have scarce cartographic and geomorphological information. Such is the case of the Iztaccihuatl volcano, where DRPs commonly occur along its steep slopes and poorly consolidated deposits that are cut by deep and narrow valleys. This study aimed to map DRPs and assess susceptibility in the Xopanac river watershed located on the eastern flank of the Iztaccihuatl volcano, in the state of Puebla. For this purpose, an inventory of PRM was elaborated based on photointerpretation and field work, and susceptibility was modeled by means of multiple logistic regression (MLR). Elevation, slope angle, dissection density, vertical erosion and land use were used as conditioning factors. Validation of the resulting susceptibility map was performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The validation shows that the RLM model presents an area under the curve of 80.2 and has a high predictive capacity with the use of few significant variables: two topographic, two morphometric and one environmental variable, which are related to the area under the curve. © 2025 Instituto de Geografia. All rights reserved.
Filiaciones:
Paulín G.L.:
Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito de la Investigación Científica s/n, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, 04510, Mexico
Salinas L.A.:
Universidad Autónoma de la Ciudad de México, Colegio de Ciencias y Humanidades, Academia de la Licenciatura Protección Civil y Gestión de Riesgos, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Quesada F.A.:
Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito de la Investigación Científica, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, 04510, Mexico
Miguel R.C.:
Escuela Nacional de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito de la Investigación Científica s/n, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, 04510, Mexico
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