Forecasting daily total pollen concentrations on a global scale
Por:
Makra L., Coviello L., Gobbi A., Jurman G., Furlanello C., Brunato M., Ziska L.H., Hess J.J., Damialis A., Garcia M.P.P., Tusnády G., Czibolya L., Ihász I., Deák Á.J., Mikó E., Dorner Z., Harry S.K., Bruffaerts N., Packeu A., Saarto A., Toiviainen L., Louna-Korteniemi M., Pätsi S., Thibaudon M., Oliver G., Charalampopoulos A., Vokou D., Przedpelska-Wasowicz E.M., Guðjohnsen E.R., Bonini M., Celenk S., Ozaslan C., Oh J.-W., Sullivan K., Ford L., Kelly M., Levetin E., Myszkowska D., Severova E., Gehrig R., Calderón-Ezquerro M.D.C., Guerra C.G., Leiva-Guzmán M.A., Ramón G.D., Barrionuevo L.B., Peter J., Berman D., Katelaris C.H., Davies J.M., Burton P., Beggs P.J., Vergamini S.M., Valencia-Barrera R.M., Traidl-Hoffmann C.
Publicada:
1 jul 2024
Ahead of Print:
1 jul 2024
Resumen:
Background: There is evidence that global anthropogenic climate change may be impacting floral phenology and the temporal and spatial characteristics of aero-allergenic pollen. Given the extent of current and future climate uncertainty, there is a need to strengthen predictive pollen forecasts. Methods: The study aims to use CatBoost (CB) and deep learning (DL) models for predicting the daily total pollen concentration up to 14 days in advance for 23 cities, covering all five continents. The model includes the projected environmental parameters, recent concentrations (1, 2 and 4 weeks), and the past environmental explanatory variables, and their future values. Results: The best pollen forecasts include Mexico City (R2(DL_7) ˜.7), and Santiago (R2(DL_7) ˜.8) for the 7th forecast day, respectively; while the weakest pollen forecasts are made for Brisbane (R2(DL_7) ˜.4) and Seoul (R2(DL_7) ˜.1) for the 7th forecast day. The global order of the five most important environmental variables in determining the daily total pollen concentrations is, in decreasing order: the past daily total pollen concentration, future 2 m temperature, past 2 m temperature, past soil temperature in 28–100 cm depth, and past soil temperature in 0–7 cm depth. City-related clusters of the most similar distribution of feature importance values of the environmental variables only slightly change on consecutive forecast days for Caxias do Sul, Cape Town, Brisbane, and Mexico City, while they often change for Sydney, Santiago, and Busan. Conclusions: This new knowledge of the ecological relationships of the most remarkable variables importance for pollen forecast models according to clusters, cities and forecast days is important for developing and improving the accuracy of airborne pollen forecasts. © 2024 European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Filiaciones:
Makra L.:
Institute of Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezovásárhely, Hungary
Coviello L.:
University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Enogis s.r.l., Trento, Italy
Gobbi A.:
Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
Jurman G.:
Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
Furlanello C.:
HK3 Lab, Rovereto, Italy
LIGHT Center, Brescia, Italy
Brunato M.:
University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science, University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Ziska L.H.:
Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Hess J.J.:
Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Damialis A.:
Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Garcia M.P.P.:
Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University Clinic of Augsburg & University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
Tusnády G.:
Alfréd Rényi Institute of Mathematics, Budapest, Hungary
Czibolya L.:
Institute of Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezovásárhely, Hungary
Ihász I.:
Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary
Deák Á.J.:
Institute of Economics and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezovásárhely, Hungary
Mikó E.:
Institute of Animal Science and Wildlife Management, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Szeged, Hódmezovásárhely, Hungary
Dorner Z.:
Department of Integrated Plant Protection, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Science (MATE) (former SZIE), Plant Protection Institute, Gödöllo, Hungary
Harry S.K.:
Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Bruffaerts N.:
Mycology & Aerobiology Service, Brussels, Belgium
Packeu A.:
Mycology & Aerobiology Service, Brussels, Belgium
Saarto A.:
Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Toiviainen L.:
Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Louna-Korteniemi M.:
Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Pätsi S.:
Biodiversity Unit, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
Thibaudon M.:
Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique, Brussieu, France
Oliver G.:
Réseau National de Surveillance Aérobiologique, Brussieu, France
Charalampopoulos A.:
Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Vokou D.:
Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Przedpelska-Wasowicz E.M.:
Icelandic Institute of Natural History, Garðabær, Iceland
Guðjohnsen E.R.:
Icelandic Institute of Natural History, Garðabær, Iceland
Bonini M.:
Department of Hygiene and Health Prevention, ATS (Agency for Health Protection of Metropolitan Area of Milan), Hygiene and Public Health Service, Milan, Italy
Celenk S.:
Science and Art Faculty, Biology Department, Aerobiology Laboratory, Uludag University, Bursa, Turkey
Ozaslan C.:
Department of Plant Protection (Weed Science), Dicle University, Diyarbakir, Turkey
Oh J.-W.:
Department of Pediatrics & Adolescent, College of Medicine, Hanyang University, Medical Center, Guri Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
Sullivan K.:
Clinical Research Institute, Minneapolis, MN, United States
Ford L.:
Asthma and Allergy Center, Bellevue, NE, United States
Kelly M.:
Asthma and Allergy Center, Bellevue, NE, United States
Levetin E.:
University of Tulsa, College of Engineering & Natural Sciences, Department of Biological Science, Tulsa, OK, United States
Myszkowska D.:
Jagiellonian University, Medical College, Department of Clinical and Environmental Allergology, Kraków, Poland
Severova E.:
Biological Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation
Gehrig R.:
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland
Calderón-Ezquerro M.D.C.:
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, México, Mexico
Guerra C.G.:
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, México, Mexico
Leiva-Guzmán M.A.:
Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
Ramón G.D.:
Hospital Italiano Regional del Sur, Bahía Blanca, Argentina
Barrionuevo L.B.:
Instituto de Alergia e Inmunologia del Sur, AAAeIC Pollen Station, Bahía Blanca, Argentina
Peter J.:
Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy and Clinical Immunology, Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town, Groote Schuur, South Africa
Berman D.:
Allergy Immunology Department, University of Cape Town Lung Institute, Cape Town, South Africa
Katelaris C.H.:
Western Sydney University and Campbelltown Hospital, Campbelltown, NSW, Australia
Davies J.M.:
School of Biomedical Science, Queensland University of Technology, Herston, QLD, Australia
Office of Research, Metro North Hospital and Health Service, Herston, QLD, Australia
Burton P.:
Department of Medicine, Immunology and Allergy, Campbelltown Hospital, Campbelltown, NSW, Australia
Beggs P.J.:
School of Natural Sciences, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Vergamini S.M.:
Centro de Ci?ncias Biológicas e da Saúde, Museu de Ci?ncias Naturais, University of Caxias do Sul, Caxias do Sul, Brazil
Valencia-Barrera R.M.:
Departamento de Biología Vegetal, Universidad de León, León, Spain
Traidl-Hoffmann C.:
Chair of Environmental Medicine, Technical University of Munich, Augsburg, Germany
Institute of Environmental Medicine, Helmholtz Centre, Munich, Augsburg, Germany
Department of Environmental Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany
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