Distribution changes of the toxic mushroom Amanita phalloides under climate change scenarios and its potential risk over indigenous communities in Mexico
Por:
Villagran-Vazquez, Abril, Garibay-Orijel, Roberto, URETA, CAROLINA
Publicada:
1 ene 2024
Categoría:
Atmospheric science
Resumen:
Amanita phalloides is a native European deathly ectomycorrhizal mushroom
that was introduced to North America and has been expanding its
distribution during the last decades. This species is morphologically
similar to wild edible mushrooms and if its distribution expands to
Mexico, it could represent a risk in terms of food security for local
communities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential
climatic suitability that exists for A. phalloides in North America and
overlay it with the distribution of mycophilic communi-ties in Mexico
under a baseline climatic scenario and climate change scenarios. To find
climatic suitability we modeled its potential distribution with the
algorithm that had the best predictive power after pilot test (MaxEnt)
using species presences and eight climatic variables chosen with
biological and statistical criteria. We worked with CanESM5 because it
is one of the best models to simulate climate in North America and
SSP5-8.5 scenario in order to be consistent with the precautionary
principle. Our results suggest that even when the species has not yet
been registered in Mexico, when using European records to model, this
country presents 33.61% of climatic suitability for this species under
the baseline scenario, potentially affecting about 70% of indigenous
communities which are the main consumers of edible mushrooms. Under
climate change scenarios, an increase in climatic suitability is
expected in Mexico, while decreases are expected in United States and
Canada. When using North American records to model, almost no climatic
suitability is found in Mexico; however, the implementation of warning
campaigns in Mexico is still needed.
Filiaciones:
Villagran-Vazquez, Abril:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Invest Cient S-N,Ciudad Univ, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Garibay-Orijel, Roberto:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biol, Lab Ecol & Sistemat Micorrizas, Circuito Exterior S-N, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
URETA, CAROLINA:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Invest Cient S-N,Ciudad Univ, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Investigadora Mexico Conahcyt, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Invest Cient S-N,Ciudad Univ, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
hybrid, Hybrid Gold
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