Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment
Por:
Danaei G., Lu Y., Singh G.M., Carnahan E., Stevens G.A., Cowan M.J., Farzadfar F., Lin J.K, Finucane M.M., Rao M., Khang Y.-H., Riley L.M., Arian D.M., Lim S.S., Ezzati M., Aamodt G., Abdeen Z., Abdella N.A., Rahim H.F.A., Addo J., Aekplakorn W., Afifi M.M., Agabiti-Rosei E., Salinas C.A.A., Agyemang C., Ali M.K., Ali M.M., Al-Nsour M., Al-Nuaim A.R., Ambady R., Angelantonio E.D., Aro P., Azizi F., Babu B.V., Bahalim A.N., Barbagallo C.M., Barbieri M.A., Barceló A., Barreto S.M., Barros H., Bautista L.E., Benetos A., Bjerregaard P., Björkelund C., Bo S., Bobak M., Bonora E., Botana M.A., Bovet P., Breckenkamp J., Breteler M.M., Broda G., Brown I.J., Bursztyn M., de León A.C., Campos H., Cappuccio F.P., Capuano V., Casiglia E., Castellano M., Castetbon K., Cea L., Chang C.-J., Chaouki N., Chatterji S., Chen C.-J., Chen Z., Choi J.-S., Chua L., Cífková R., Cobiac L.J., Cooper R.S., Corsi A.M., Costanza M.C., Craig C.L., Dankner R.S., Dastgiri S., Delgado E., Dinc G., Doi Y., Dong G.-H., Dorsi E., Dragano N., Drewnowski A., Eggertsen R., Elliott P., Engeland A., Erem C., Esteghamati A., Fall C.H.D., Fan J.-G., Ferreccio C., Fezeu L., Firmo J.O., Florez H.J., Fornés N.S., Fowkes F.G.R., Franceschini G., Frisk F., Fuchs F.D., Fuller E.L., Getz L., Giampaoli S., Gómez L.F., Gomez-Zumaquero J.M., -Iversen S.G., Grant J.F., Carvajal R.G., Gulliford M.C., Gupta R., Gupta P.C., Gureje O., Gutierrez H.R., Hansen T.W., Hata J., He J., Heim N., Heinrich J., Hemmingsson T., Hennis A., Herman W.H., Herrera V.M., Ho S., Holdsworth M., Frisman G.H., Hopman W.M., Hussain A., Husseini A., Ibrahim M.M., Ikeda N., Jacobsen B.K., Jaddou H.Y., Jafar T.H., Janghorbani M., Jasienska G., Joffres M.R., Jonas J.B., Kadiki O.A., Kalter-Leibovici O., Kamadjeu R.M., Kaptoge S., Karalis I., Kastarinen M.J., Katz J., Keinan-Boker L., Kelly P., Khalilzadeh O., Kiechl S., Kim K.W., Kiyohara Y., Kobayashi J., Krause M.P., Kubínová R., Kurjata P., Kusuma Y.S., Lam T.H., Langhammer A., Lawes C.M.M., Le C., Lee J., Lévy-Marchal C., Lewington S., Li Y., Lim T.O., Lin X., Lin C.-C., Lin H.-H., Lind L., Lissner L., Liu X., Lopez-Jaramillo P., Lorbeer R., Ma G., Ma S., Macià F., Maclean D.R., Maggi S., Magliano D.J., Makdisse M., Mancia G., Mannami T., Marques-Vidal P., Mbanya J.C.N., McFarlane-Anderson N., Miccoli R., Miettola J., Minh H.V., Miquel J.F., Miranda J.J., Mohamed M.K., Mohan V., Mohanna S., Mokdad A., Mollentze W.F., Morales D.D., Morgan K., Lorenza M Muiesan, Muntoni S., Nabipour I., Nakagami T., Nangia V., Nemesure B., Neovius M., Nerhus K.A., Nervi F., Neuhauser H., Nguyen M., Ninomiya T., Noale M., Oh S.W., Ohkubo T., Olivieri O., önal A.E., Onat A., Oróstegui M., Ouedraogo H., Pan W.-H., Panagiotakos D.B., Panza F., Park Y., Passos V.M.A., Pednekar M.S., Pelizzari P.M., Peres M.A., Cynthia Pérez, Pérez-Fernández R., Pichardo R., Phua H.P., Pistelli F., Plans P., Polakowska M., Poulter N., Prabhakaran D., Qiao Q., Rafiei M., Raitakari O.T., Ramos L.R., Rampal S., Rampal L., Rasmussen F., Reddy K.K.R., Redon J., Revilla L., Reyes-García V., Roaeid R.B., Robinson C.A., Rodriguez-Artalejo F., Rojas-Martinez R., Ronkainen K., Rosero-Bixby L., Roth G.A., Sachdev H.S., Sánchez J.R., Sanisoglu S.Y., Sans S., Sarraf-Zadegan N., Scazufca M., Schaan B.D., Schapochnik N., Schelleman H., Schneider I.J.C., Schooling C.M., Schwarz B., Sekuri C., Sereday M.S., Serra-Majem L., Shaw J., Shera A.S., Shi Z., Shiri R., Shu X.O., Silva D.A.S., Silva E., Simons L.A., Smith M., Söderberg S., Soebardi S., Solfrizzi V., Sonestedt E., Soysal A., Stattin P., Stein A.D., Stergiou G.S., Stessman J., Sudo A., Suka M., Sundh V., Sundquist K., Sundström J., Swai A.B., Tai E.S., Tambs K., Tesfaye F., Thomas G.N., Thorogood M., Tilvis R.S., Tobias M., Torheim L.E., Trenkwalder P., Tuomilehto J.O., Tur J.A., Tzourio C., Uhernik A.I., Ukoli F.A., Unwin N., Hoorn S.V., Vanderpump M.P., Varo J.J., Veierød M.B., Velásquez-Meléndez G., Verschuren M., Viet L., Villalpando S., Vioque J., Vollenweider P., Volpato S., Wang N., Wang Y.X., Ward M., Waspadji S., Lennart X Welin, Whitlock G., Wilhelmsen L., Willeit J., Woodward M., Wormser D., André J Xavier, Xu F., Xu L., Yamamoto A., Yang G., Yang X., Yeh L.-C., Yoon J.-S., You Q., Yu Z., Zhang J., Zhang L., Zheng W., Zhou M.
Publicada:
1 ene 2014
Resumen:
Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
Filiaciones:
Danaei G.:
Department of Global Health and Population, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
Lu Y.:
Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States
Singh G.M.:
Department of Nutrition, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States
Carnahan E.:
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
Stevens G.A.:
Department of Health Statistics and Information Systems, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
Cowan M.J.:
Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
Farzadfar F.:
Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Lin J.K:
Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States
Finucane M.M.:
Gladstone Institutes, University of California, San Francisco, CA, United States
Rao M.:
Alpert Medical School, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States
Khang Y.-H.:
Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
Riley L.M.:
Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, WHO, Geneva, Switzerland
Arian D.M.:
Department of Epidemiology and Department of Nutrition, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
Division of Cardiovascular Medicine and Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States
Lim S.S.:
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Ezzati M.:
MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
All Open Access, Hybrid Gold
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