A Caribbean and Central America Seismic Hazard Model for Sovereign Parametric Insurance Coverage
Por:
Salgado-Galvez, Mario Andres, Ordaz, Mario, Singh, Shri Krishna, Perez-Campos, Xyoli, Huerta, Benjamin, Bazzurro, Paolo, Faga, Ettore
Publicada:
1 feb 2023
Resumen:
A fully probabilistic seismic hazard model with a single domain and
sufficiently accurate resolution level for national analyses has been
developed, for the Caribbean and Central America, to support the design
of parametric earthquake policies offered by the Caribbean Catastrophe
Risk Financing Facility to sovereign countries. This model provides
updated earthquake hazard and risk information for 34 countries in the
region, allowing to obtain detailed seismic hazard results at any
location within the area of analysis. Besides a detailed zonation of
subduction and crustal sources, updated seismicity and tectonic data
have been utilized. Different seismicity, geometric, and rupture models
have been adopted using state-of-the-art methodologies and tools. The
main output of this model is a stochastic event-set, which is the hazard
representation utilized not only to compute a long-term overview of the
seismic hazard in the region but also to probabilistically estimate
earthquake modeled losses at a national level that are used as triggers
for underpinning parametric earthquake insurance. Although not of direct
interest for parametric insurance purposes, this model also yields
hazard maps and uniform hazard spectra for different return periods. For
the operational purposes of the parametric insurance coverage, a
postevent tool was developed to calculate, in near-real time, the
ground-motion intensities associated with any earthquake within the
region under study. This is done automatically by choosing a rupture
plane from the moment tensor solution based on predefined rules while
maintaining full consistency with all the assumptions made in the
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The predicted ground motions in
the region and the vulnerability functions developed for the exposed
assets are then used to estimate whether the economic losses for each
affected country exceed the trigger value stated in the country-specific
insurance policy conditions and whether a payout should be issued, which
is typically disbursed within 14 days.
Filiaciones:
Salgado-Galvez, Mario Andres:
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Ordaz, Mario:
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Singh, Shri Krishna:
Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Perez-Campos, Xyoli:
Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Huerta, Benjamin:
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Bazzurro, Paolo:
University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy
Faga, Ettore:
RED Risk, Pavia, Italy
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