Demographic and climatic factors associated with dengue prevalence in a hyperendemic zone in Mexico: An empirical approach
Por:
Espinoza-Gomez F., Newton-Sanchez O.A., Nava-Zavala A.H., Zavala-Cerna M.G., Rojas-Larios F., Delgado-Enciso I., Martinez-Rizo A.B., Lozano-Kasten F.
Publicada:
1 ene 2021
Resumen:
Background: Many models for predicting dengue epidemics use incidence and short-term changes in climate variables, however, studies in real-life scenarios for correlations of seroprevalence (SP) with long-term climate variables and with integration of socio-economic factors are scarce. Our objective was to analyse the combined correlation between socio-economic and climate variables with the SP of dengue in Mexico. Methods: We performed a seroepidemiological ecological study on the Mexican Pacific coast. Dengue SP was estimated by the presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies in 1278 inhabitants. We implemented multiple correlations with socio-economic, climatic and topographic characteristics using logistic regression, generalized linear models and non-linear regressions. Results: Dengue SP was 58%. The age-adjusted correlation was positive with the male sex, while a negative correlation was seen with socio-economic status (SES) and scholl level (SL). The annual temperature showed a positive correlation, while the altitude was negative. It should be noted that these correlations showed a marked 'S' shape in the non-linear model, suggesting three clearly defined scenarios for dengue risk. Conclusion: Low SES and SL showed an unexpected paradoxical protective effect. Altitude above sea level and annual temperature are the main determinants for dengue in the long term. The identification of three clearly delineated scenarios for transmission could improve the accuracy of predictive models. © 2020 The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.
Filiaciones:
Espinoza-Gomez F.:
Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Colima, Avenida Universidad, 333, Colonia Las Viboras, Colima, 28040, Mexico
Newton-Sanchez O.A.:
Facultad de Medicina Universidad Autonoma de Guadalajara
Nava-Zavala A.H.:
Unidad de Investigacion Biomedica, Centro Medico Nacional de Occidente, Instituto Mexicano Del Seguro Social, Guadalajara, Mexico
Zavala-Cerna M.G.:
Facultad de Medicina Universidad Autonoma de Guadalajara
Rojas-Larios F.:
Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Colima, Avenida Universidad, 333, Colonia Las Viboras, Colima, 28040, Mexico
Delgado-Enciso I.:
Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Colima, Avenida Universidad, 333, Colonia Las Viboras, Colima, 28040, Mexico
Martinez-Rizo A.B.:
Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Colima, Avenida Universidad, 333, Colonia Las Viboras, Colima, 28040, Mexico
Lozano-Kasten F.:
Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Colima, Avenida Universidad, 333, Colonia Las Viboras, Colima, 28040, Mexico
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