Toward New Epidemiological Landscapes of Trypanosoma cruzi (Kinetoplastida, Trypanosomatidae) Transmission under Future Human-Modified Land Cover and Climatic Change in Mexico
Por:
Gonzalez-Salazar, Constantino, Meneses-Mosquera, Anny K., Aguirre-Pena, Alejandra, Fernandez-Castel, Karla Paola J., Stephens, Christopher R., Mendoza-Ponce, Alma, Velasco, Julian A., Calderon-Bustamante, Oscar, Estrada, Francisco
Publicada:
1 sep 2022
Resumen:
Chagas disease, caused by the protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi, is an
important yet neglected disease that represents a severe public health
problem in the Americas. Although the alteration of natural habitats and
climate change can favor the establishment of new transmission cycles
for T. cruzi, the compound effect of human-modified landscapes and
current climate change on the transmission dynamics of T. cruzi has
until now received little attention. A better understanding of the
relationship between these factors and T. cruzi presence is an important
step towards finding ways to mitigate the future impact of this disease
on human communities. Here, we assess how wild and domestic cycles of T.
cruzi transmission are related to human-modified landscapes and climate
conditions (LUCC-CC). Using a Bayesian datamining framework, we measured
the correlations among the presence of T. cruzi transmission cycles
(sylvatic, rural, and urban) and historical land use, land cover, and
climate for the period 1985 to 2012. We then estimated the potential
range changes of T. cruzi transmission cycles under future land-use and
-cover change and climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070
time-horizons, with respect to ``green'' (RCP 2.6),
``business-as-usual'' (RCP 4.5), and ``worst-case'' (RCP 8.5)
scenarios, and four general circulation models. Our results show how
sylvatic and domestic transmission cycles could have historically
interacted through the potential exchange of wild triatomines (insect
vectors of T. cruzi) and mammals carrying T. cruzi, due to the proximity
of human settlements (urban and rural) to natural habitats. However, T.
cruzi transmission cycles in recent times (i.e., 2011) have undergone a
domiciliation process where several triatomines have colonized and
adapted to human dwellings and domestic species (e.g., dogs and cats)
that can be the main blood sources for these triatomines. Accordingly,
Chagas disease could become an emerging health problem in urban areas.
Projecting potential future range shifts of T. cruzi transmission cycles
under LUCC-CC scenarios we found for RCP 2.6 no expansion of favourable
conditions for the presence of T. cruzi transmission cycles. However,
for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, a significant range expansion of T. cruzi could be
expected. We conclude that if sustainable goals are reached by
appropriate changes in socio-economic and development policies we can
expect no increase in suitable habitats for T. cruzi transmission
cycles.
Filiaciones:
Gonzalez-Salazar, Constantino:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, C3 Ctr Ciencias Complejidad, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Meneses-Mosquera, Anny K.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Aguirre-Pena, Alejandra:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Fernandez-Castel, Karla Paola J.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Stephens, Christopher R.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, C3 Ctr Ciencias Complejidad, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Nucl, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Mendoza-Ponce, Alma:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Velasco, Julian A.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Calderon-Bustamante, Oscar:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Estrada, Francisco:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Programa Invest Cambio Climat, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
gold, Green Published
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