Modelling avocado-driven deforestation in Michoacan, Mexico
Por:
Arima, Eugenio Y., Denvir, Audrey, Young, Kenneth R., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Antonio, Garcia-Oliva, Felipe
Publicada:
1 mar 2022
Resumen:
As demand for avocado climbs, avocado production in Michoacan-Mexico's
biggest avocado growing region-expands into new places. We use a spatial
probit model to project the geographic distribution of likely future
avocado expansion and analyze those results to determine (a) threats to
specific forest types and (b) how the distribution of avocado is
shifting spatially under current and future climate scenarios. Our
results suggest that avocado expansion in Michoacan is strongly driven
by distance to existing agriculture, roads, and localities, as well as
the dwindling availability of Andosol soils. As future expansion ensues,
it presents risk of forest loss across various forest types, with
pine-oak forest, mesophilic montane forest, and oyamel fir forest being
of particular concern. Moreover, our results suggest that avocado
production will occupy wider ranges in terms of temperature,
precipitation, slope steepness and soil. The model predicts that climate
change will alter the spatial distribution of avocado plantings,
expanding into forest types at lower and at higher elevations. Forest
loss threatens ecosystem degradation, and a wider avocado crop
production footprint could lead to orchard establishment into dwindling
forests that host a high diversity of native oaks and charismatic
species, including the monarch butterfly.
Filiaciones:
Arima, Eugenio Y.:
Univ Texas Austin, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA
Denvir, Audrey:
Univ Texas Austin, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA
Young, Kenneth R.:
Univ Texas Austin, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA
Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Antonio:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Invest Ecosistemas & Sustentabilidad, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Garcia-Oliva, Felipe:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Invest Ecosistemas & Sustentabilidad, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
gold, All Open Access; Gold
|