Assessment of the potential establishment of Lyme endemic cycles in Mexico
Por:
Gonzalez-Salazar, Constantino, Stephens, Christopher R., Meneses-Mosquera, Anny K.
Publicada:
1 dic 2021
Resumen:
Although Lyme disease is currently classified as exotic in Mexico,
recent studies have suggested that it might be endemic there. We
assessed the potential risk for the establishment of Borrelia
burgdorferi transmission in Mexico. To identify the potential routes of
B. burgdorferi spread, Complex Inference Networks were used initially to
identify potential vector-host interactions between hard ticks (Ixodes)
and migratory birds in the U.S., and a model for predicting the most
important potential bird hosts of hard ticks was then obtained. By using
network metrics, keystone-vectors were identified as those species with
highest connectivity within and between network communities and had the
potential to keep the pathogen circulating with many birds and to be
dispersed to several regions. The climatic profile where these
interactions occur in the U.S. was characterized and a geographic model
for each keystone-vector was built. The accuracy of these models to
predict areas where hard ticks have been reported positive for B.
burgdorferi allows one to identify areas of greater risk of Lyme disease
emergence. These hard tick-bird interactions and their climatic profile
were mapped into the winter ranges of birds in Mexico. Thus, those
regions in Mexico with the highest potential for becoming endemic areas
of Lyme disease through the arrival of hard ticks and birds infected by
B. burgdorferi were identified. These areas are candidates for future
surveillance programs.
Filiaciones:
Gonzalez-Salazar, Constantino:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Cdmx 04510, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, C3 Ctr Ciencias Complejidad, Cdmx 04510, Mexico
Stephens, Christopher R.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, C3 Ctr Ciencias Complejidad, Cdmx 04510, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Nucl, Cdmx 04510, Mexico
Meneses-Mosquera, Anny K.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ciencias Atmosfera & Cambio Climat, Cdmx 04510, Mexico
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