Land-use change and rodent-borne diseases: hazards on the shared socioeconomic pathways
Por:
Garcia-Pena, Gabriel E., Rubio, V, Andre, Mendoza, Hugo, Fernandez, Miguel, Milholland, Matthew T., Aguirre, A. Alonso, SUZAN, GERARDO, Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos
Publicada:
8 nov 2021
Resumen:
Land-use change has a direct impact on species survival and
reproduction, altering their spatio-temporal distributions. It acts as a
selective force that favours the abundance and diversity of reservoir
hosts and affects host-pathogen dynamics and prevalence. This has led to
land-use change being a significant driver of infectious diseases
emergence. Here, we predict the presence of rodent taxa and map the
zoonotic hazard (potential sources of harm) from rodent-borne diseases
in the short and long term (2025 and 2050). The study considers three
different land-use scenarios based on the shared socioeconomic pathways
narratives (SSPs): sustainable (SSP1-Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 2.6), fossil-fuelled development (SSP5-RCP 8.5) and
deepening inequality (SSP4-RCP 6.0). We found that cropland expansion
into forest and pasture may increase zoonotic hazards in areas with high
rodent-species diversity. Nevertheless, a future sustainable scenario
may not always reduce hazards. All scenarios presented high
heterogeneity in zoonotic hazard, with high-income countries having the
lowest hazard range. The SSPs narratives suggest that opening borders
and reducing cropland expansion are critical to mitigate current and
future zoonotic hazards globally, particularly in middle- and low-income
economies. Our study advances previous efforts to anticipate the
emergence of zoonotic diseases by integrating past, present and future
information to guide surveillance and mitigation of zoonotic hazards at
the regional and local scale. This article is part of the theme issue
`Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across
the globe'.
Filiaciones:
Zambrana-Torrelio, C (Corresponding Author), EcoHlth Alliance, New York, NY 10018 USA. Garcia-Pena, Gabriel E., Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Complejidad, Fac Med Vet & Zootecnia, Ciudad De Mexico, Mexico. Mendoza, Hugo
Green Accepted, hybrid, All Open Access, Hybrid Gold, Green
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