Assessing Markovian Models for Seismic Hazard and Forecasting
Por:
Gutierrez Pena, Q. J., Nava Pichardo, F. A., Glowacka, E., Castro Escamilla, R. R., Marquez Ramirez, V. H.
Publicada:
1 mar 2021
Ahead of Print:
1 mar 2021
Resumen:
We propose the use of statistical measures to quantify robustness,
uncertainty, and significance for Markovian models of large magnitude
seismic systems, and we also propose a method for choosing the best of
different models by using the normalized measures in a discriminant
function. We tested the proposed methods on earthquakes occurring in an
area around Japan, divided into four regions; modeling the system as
having four states, where each state corresponds to the region where the
latest large earthquake, larger than a given threshold moment magnitude,
has occurred. Our results show that for the 7.0-7.3 threshold magnitude
range the seismicity of this region does occur according to a Markovian
process, with optimum results for threshold magnitude 7.1, whereas for
magnitudes outside this range seismicity is less Markovian.
Filiaciones:
Gutierrez Pena, Q. J.:
CICESE, Div Ciencias Tierra, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
Nava Pichardo, F. A.:
CICESE, Div Ciencias Tierra, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
Glowacka, E.:
CICESE, Div Ciencias Tierra, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
Castro Escamilla, R. R.:
CICESE, Div Ciencias Tierra, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
Marquez Ramirez, V. H.:
UNAM, Ctr Geociencias, Juriquilla, Queretaro, Mexico
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