The historical case of Paricutin volcano (Michoacan, Mexico): challenges of simulating lava flows on a gentle slope during a long-lasting eruption
Por:
Becerril, Laura, Larrea, Patricia, Salinas, Sergio, Mossoux, Sophie, Ferres, Dolors, Widom, Elisabeth, Siebe, Claus, Marti, Joan
Publicada:
1 may 2021
Ahead of Print:
1 feb 2021
Resumen:
Simulating lava flows on a gentle slope is complex since they can
propagate in a wide range of directions. It is an even greater challenge
to define lava flow trajectories when an eruption lasts over several
years and flows cool down, changing the surrounding topography. In this
study, we test Q-LavHA, an open source plug-in that simulates lava flow
inundation calculating its probability, and using Paricutin's eruption
(1943-1952) in central Mexico as a case study. We have appropriately
calibrated the Q-LavHA plug-in for the Paricutin case study, which
provides insights on how to better model lava flows in gentle terrain.
From this work, we observe that each phase is characterized by a unique
set of parameters requiring a careful calibration and that low-relief
topographies require special consideration. Our findings could be useful
for real-time hazard evaluation in future volcanic scenarios in the
Michoacan-Guanajuato volcanic field and elsewhere, where new monogenetic
eruptions similar to Paricutin can be expected.
Filiaciones:
Becerril, Laura:
Geol Survey Chile SERNAGEOMIN, Teatinos 50, Santiago, Chile
Spanish Sci Res Council CSIC, Geosci Barcelona GEO3BCN, Barcelona 08028, Spain
Larrea, Patricia:
Univ Chile, Fac Ciencias Fis & Matemat, Dept Geol, Plaza Ercilla 803, Santiago, Chile
Univ Chile, Fac Ciencias Fis & Matemat, Andean Geothermal Ctr Excellence CEGA, Plaza Ercilla 803, Santiago, Chile
Miami Univ, Dept Geol & Environm Earth Sci, Oxford, OH 45056 USA
Salinas, Sergio:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ingn, Div Ingn Ciencias Tierra, Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
Mossoux, Sophie:
Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Geog, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium
Ferres, Dolors:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Escuela Nacl Ciencias Tierra, Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
Widom, Elisabeth:
Miami Univ, Dept Geol & Environm Earth Sci, Oxford, OH 45056 USA
Siebe, Claus:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Dept Vulcanol, Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
Marti, Joan:
Spanish Sci Res Council CSIC, Geosci Barcelona GEO3BCN, Barcelona 08028, Spain
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