The Need to Quantify Hazard Related to Non-magmatic Unrest: From BET_EF to BET_UNREST
Por:
Sandri, Laura, Tonini, Roberto, Rouwet, Dmitri, Constantinescu, Robert, Mendoza-Rosas A.T., Andrade, Daniel, Bernard, Benjamin
Publicada:
1 ene 2019
Resumen:
Most volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions and their accompanying phenomena. However, hazardous volcanic events can also occur during non-magmatic unrest, defined as a state of volcanic unrest in which no migration of magma is recognised. Examples include tectonic unrest, and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g. Ontake eruption, September 2014) have demonstrated that the successful forecasting of phreatic eruptions is still very difficult. It is therefore of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the state of non-magmatic unrest. Often, this type of unrest is driven by fluids-on-the-move, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic model BET (Bayesian Event Tree), called BET_UNREST, specifically developed to include the forecasting of non-magmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of BET_UNREST differs from the previous BET_EF (BET for Eruption Forecasting) by adding a dedicated branch to detail non-magmatic unrest outcomes. Probabilities are calculated at each node by merging prior models and past data with new incoming monitoring data, and the results can be updated any time new data has been collected. Monitoring data are weighted through pre-defined thresholds of anomaly, as in BET_EF. The BET_UNREST model is introduced here, together with its software implementation PyBetUnrest, with the aim of creating a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to support short-term volcanic forecasting (already available on the VHub platform). The BET_UNREST model and PyBetUnrest tool are tested through three case studies in the frame of the EU VUELCO project. © 2017, The Author(s).
Filiaciones:
Sandri, Laura:
Sezione di Bologna, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Donato Creti 12, Bologna, Italy
Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Sez Bologna, Via Donato Creti 12, Bologna, Italy
Tonini, Roberto:
Sezione di Roma 1, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, Rome, Italy
Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Sez Roma 1, Via Vigna Murata 605, Rome, Italy
Rouwet, Dmitri:
Sezione di Bologna, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Donato Creti 12, Bologna, Italy
Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Sez Bologna, Via Donato Creti 12, Bologna, Italy
Constantinescu, Robert:
Seismic Research Centre, University of West Indies, Gordon street, Saint Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
School of Geosciences, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, NES 107, Tampa, FL 33620-5550, United States
Univ West Indies, Seism Res Ctr, Gordon St, St Augustine, Trinid & Tobago
Univ S Florida, Sch Geosci, 4202 E Fowler Ave,NES 107, Tampa, FL 33620 USA
Mendoza-Rosas A.T.:
Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. C. Universitaria, Coyoacán, México, D.F. 04510, Mexico
CONACYT-Centro de Ingeniería y, Desarrollo Industrial, Av. Playa pie de la cuesta 702, Desarrollo San Pablo, Querétaro, Qro., Mexico, C.P. 76125, Mexico
Andrade, Daniel:
Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Instituto Geofísico, Quito, Ecuador
Escuela Politec Nacl, Inst Geofis, Quito, Ecuador
Bernard, Benjamin:
Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Instituto Geofísico, Quito, Ecuador
Escuela Politec Nacl, Inst Geofis, Quito, Ecuador
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, C Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
CONACYT Ctr Ingn & Desarrollo Ind, Av Playa Pie Cuesta 702, Queretaro 76125, Qro, Mexico
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