Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds
Por:
Lagerholm, Vendela K., Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson, Vaniscotte, Amelie, Potapova, Olga R., Tomek, Teresa, Bochenski, Zbigniew M., Shepherd, Paul, Barton, Nick, Van Dyck, Marie-Claire, Miller, Rebecca, Hoglund, Jacob, Yoccoz, Nigel G., Dalen, Love, Stewart, John R.
Publicada:
1 abr 2017
Resumen:
Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements,
with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes.
However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift
their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes.
Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions
have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by
habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that
combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species
distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird
species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta),
respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in
mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20
millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest
that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat
availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of
birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some
isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a
future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the
last glacial maximum.
Filiaciones:
Lagerholm, Vendela K.:
Swedish Museum Nat Hist, Dept Bioinformat & Genet, Stockholm, Sweden
Stockholm Univ, Dept Zool, Stockholm, Sweden
Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson:
Swedish Museum Nat Hist, Dept Bioinformat & Genet, Stockholm, Sweden
Stockholm Univ, Dept Zool, Stockholm, Sweden
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Complejidad, Ciudad De Mexico, Mexico
Vaniscotte, Amelie:
UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Dept Arctic & Marine Biol, Tromso, Norway
Potapova, Olga R.:
SD Inc, Mammoth Site Hot Springs, Hot Springs, NC USA
Tomek, Teresa:
Polish Acad Sci, Inst Systemat & Evolut Anim, Krakow, Poland
Bochenski, Zbigniew M.:
Polish Acad Sci, Inst Systemat & Evolut Anim, Krakow, Poland
Shepherd, Paul:
British Geol Survey, Nottingham, England
Barton, Nick:
Univ Oxford, Inst Archaeol, Oxford, England
Van Dyck, Marie-Claire:
Catholic Univ Louvain, Inst Anal Change Contemporary & Hist Soc, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium
Miller, Rebecca:
Univ Liege, Serv Prehist, Liege, Belgium
Hoglund, Jacob:
Uppsala Univ, Evolutionary Biol Ctr, Dept Ecol & Genet, Uppsala, Sweden
Yoccoz, Nigel G.:
UiT Arctic Univ Norway, Dept Arctic & Marine Biol, Tromso, Norway
Dalen, Love:
Swedish Museum Nat Hist, Dept Bioinformat & Genet, Stockholm, Sweden
Stewart, John R.:
Bournemouth Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Dorset House,Talbot Campus, Poole, Dorset, England
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