Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021


Por: Vollset S.E., Ababneh H.S., Abate Y.H., Abbafati C., Abbasgholizadeh R., Abbasian M., Abbastabar H., Abd Al Magied A.H.A., ElHafeez S.A., Abdelkader A., Abdelmasseh M., Abd-Elsalam S., Abdi P., Abdollahi M., Abdoun M., Abdullahi A., Abebe M., Abiodun O., Aboagye R.G., Abolhassani H., Abouzid M., Aboye G.B., Abreu L.G., Absalan A., Abualruz H., Abubakar B., Abukhadijah H.J.J., Addolorato G., Adekanmbi V., Adetunji C.O., Adetunji J.B., Adeyeoluwa T.E., Adha R., Adhikary R.K., Adnani Q.E.S., Adzigbli L.A., Afrashteh F., Afzal M.S., Afzal S., Agbozo F., Agodi A., Agrawal A., Agyemang-Duah W., Ahinkorah B.O., Ahlstrom A.J., Ahmad A., Ahmad F., Ahmad M.M., Ahmad S., Ahmed A., Ahmed H., Ahmed S., Ahmed S.A., Akinosoglou K., Akkaif M.A., Akrami A.E., Akter E., Awaidy S.A., Al Hasan S.M., Al Mosa A.S., Al Ta'ani O., Al Zaabi O.A.M., Alahdab F., Alajlani M.M., Al-Ajlouni Y., Alalalmeh S.O., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam N., Alam T., Alam Z., Al-Amer R.M., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Albakri A., Aldhaleei W.A., Aldridge R.W., Alemohammad S.Y., Alemu Y.M., Al-Gheethi A.A.S., Al-Hanawi M.K., Ali A., Ali I., Ali M.U., Ali R., Ali S.S.S., Ali V.E., Ali W., Al-Ibraheem A., Alicandro G., Alif S.M., Aljunid S.M., Alla F., Almazan J.U., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Alqutaibi A.Y., Alrawashdeh A., Alrousan S.M., Al-Sabah S.K., Alsabri M.A., Altaany Z., Al-Tammemi A.B., Al-Tawfiq J.A., Altirkawi K.A., Aluh D.O., Alvis-Guzman N., Al-Wardat M.S., Al-Worafi Y.M., Aly H., Alyahya M.S., Alzoubi K.H., Al-Zyoud W., Amani R., Ameyaw E.K., Amin T.T., Amindarolzarbi A., Amiri S., Amirzade-Iranaq M.H., Amu H., Amugsi D.A., Ancuceanu R., Anderlini D., Anderson D.B., Andrade P.P., Andrei C.L., Andrei T., Andrews E.A., Anil A., Anil S., Anoushiravani A., Antony C.M., Antriyandarti E., Anuoluwa B.S., Anvari S., Anyasodor A.E., Appiah F., Aquilano M., Arab J.P., Arabloo J., Arafa E.A., Arafat M., Aravkin A.Y., Ardekani A., Areda D., Aregawi B.B., Aremu A., Ariffin H., Arkew M., Armani K., Artamonov A.A., Arumugam A., Asghari-Jafarabadi M., Ashbaugh C., Astell-Burt T., Athari S.S., Atorkey P., Atout M.M.W., Aujayeb A., Ausloos M., Awad H., Awotidebe A.W., Ayatollahi H., Ayuso-Mateos J.L., Azadnajafabad S., Azeez F.K., Azevedo R.M.S., Badar M., Baghdadi S., Bagheri M., Bagheri N., Bai R., Baker J.L., Bako A.T., Balakrishnan S., Balcha W.F., Baltatu O.C., Barchitta M., Bardideh E., Barker-Collo S.L., Bärnighausen T.W., Barqawi H.J., Barteit S., Basiru A., Basso J.D., Bastan M.-M., Basu S., Bauckneht M., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Bayileyegn N.S., Behnoush A.H., Behzadi P., Beiranvand M., Bello O.O., Belo L., Beloukas A., Bemanalizadeh M., Bensenor I.M., Benzian H., Beran A., Berezvai Z., Bernstein R.S., Bettencourt P.J.G., Beyene K.A., Beyene M.G., Bhagat D.S., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhala N., Bhandari D., Bharadwaj R., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhargava A., Bhaskar S., Bhat V., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhatti G.K., Bhatti J.S., Bhatti M.S., Bhuiyan M.A., Bisignano C., Biswas B., Bjørge T., Bodolica V., Bodunrin A.O., Hashemi M.B., Basara B.B., Borhany H., Bosoka S.A., Carvajal A.B., Bouaoud S., Boufous S., Boxe C., Boyko E.J., Brady O.J., Braithwaite D., Brauer M., Brazo-Sayavera J., Brenner H., Brown C.S., Browne A.J., Brugha T., Bryazka D., Bulamu N.B., Buonsenso D., Burkart K., Burns R.A., Busse R., Bustanji Y., Butt Z.A., dos Santos F.L.C., Barsbay M.Ç., Calina D., Campos L.A., Cao S., Capodici A., Cárdenas R., Carreras G., Carugno A., Carvalho M., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castelpietra G., Cattaruzza M.S., Caye A., Cegolon L., Cembranel F., Cenko E., Cerin E., Chadban S.J., Chadwick J., Chakraborty C., Chakraborty S., Chalek J., Chan J.S.K., Chandika R.M., Chandy S., Charan J., Chaudhary A.A., Chaurasia A., Chen A.-T., Chen H., Chen M.X., Chen S., Cherbuin N., Chi G., Chichagi F., Chimed-Ochir O., Chimoriya R., Ching P.R., Chirinos-Caceres J.L., Chitheer A., Cho D.Y., Cho W.C.S., Choi D.-W., Chong B., Chong C.L., Chopra H., Chu D.-T., Chung E., Chutiyami M., Clayton J.T., Cogen R.M., Cohen A.J., Columbus A., Comfort H., Conde J., Connolly J.T., Cooper E.E.K., Cortese S., Cruz-Martins N., da Silva A.G., Dadras O., Dai X., Dai Z., Dalton B.E., Damiani G., Dandona L., Dandona R., Das J.K., Das S., Dash N.R., Davletov K., De la Hoz F.P., De Leo D., Debopadhaya S., Delgado-Enciso I., Denova-Gutiérrez E., Dervenis N., Desai H.D., Devanbu V.G.C., Dewan S.M.R., Dhama K., Dhane A.S., Dhingra S., da Silva D.D., Diaz D., Diaz L.A., Diaz M.J., Dima A., Ding D.D., Do T.H.P., do Prado C.B., Dodangeh M., Doegah P.T., Dohare S., Dong W., D'Oria M., Doshi R., Dowou R.K., Dsouza H.L., Dsouza V., Dube J., Dumith S.C., Duncan B.B., Duraes A.R., Duraisamy S., Durojaiye O.C., Dushpanova A., Dutta S., Dzianach P.A., Dziedzic A.M., Eboreime E., Ebrahimi A., Kalan M.E., Edinur H.A., Efendi F., Eikemo T.A., Eini E., Ekundayo T.C., El Arab R.A., Sayed I.E., Elamin O., Elemam N.M., ElGohary G.M.T., Elhadi M., Elmeligy O.A.A., Elmoselhi A.B., Elshaer M., Elsohaby I., Eltahir E., Emeto T.I., Eshrati B., Eslami M., Esmaeili Z., Fabin N., Fagbamigbe A.F., Fagbule O.F., Falzone L., Fareed M., e Sá Farinha C.S., Faris M.E.M., Faro A., Fasihi K., Fatehizadeh A., Fauk N.K., Fazylov T., Feigin V.L., Fekadu G., Feng X., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Ferrara P., Ferreira N., Firew B.S., Fischer F., Fitriana I., Flavel J., Flor L.S., Folayan M.O., Foley K.M., Fonzo M., Force L.M., Foschi M., Freitas A., Fridayani N.K.Y., Fukutaki K.G., Furtado J.M., Fux B., Gaal P.A., Gadanya M.A., Gallus S., Ganesan B., Ganiyani M.A., Gautam R.K., Gebi T.G., Gebregergis M.W., Gebrehiwot M., Getacher L., Getahun G.K.A., Gething P.W., Ghadimi D.J., Ghadirian F., Ghafarian S., Ghailan K.Y., Ghasemi M., Dabaghi G.G., Ghazy R.M., Ghoba S., Gholami E., Gholamrezanezhad A., Gholizadeh N., Ghorbani M., Vajargah P.G., Ghotbi E., Gil A.U., Gill T.K., Girmay A., Glasbey J.C., Glushkova E.V., Gnedovskaya E.V., Göbölös L., Goldust M., Goleij P., Golinelli D., Gopalani S.V., Goulart A.C., Gouravani M., Goyal A., Grivna M., Grosso G., Guarducci G., Gubari M.I.M., Guicciardi S., Guimarães R.A., Gulati S., Gulisashvili D., Gunawardane D.A., Guo C., Gupta A.K., Gupta R., Gupta S., Gupta V.K., Haakenstad A., Hadi N.R., Haep N., Hafiz A., Haghmorad D., Haile D., Ali A.H., Haj-Mirzaian A., Halboub E.S., Haller S., Halwani R., Abdullah K.H., Hamdy N.M., Hamoudi R., Hanifi N., Hankey G.J., Haq Z.A., Haque M.R., Harapan H., Hargono A., Haro J.M., Hasaballah A.I., Hasan S.M.M., Hasanian M., Hasnain M.S., Hassan A., Haubold J., Hay S.I., Hebert J.J., Hegazi O.E., Heidari M., Hemmati M., Henson C.A., Herrera-Serna B.Y., Herteliu C., Heydari M., Hezam K., Hidayana I., Hiraike Y., Hoan N.Q., Holla R., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hossain M.M., Hosseinzadeh H., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hu C., Huang J., Hultström M., Hundie T.G., Hunt A.J., Hushmandi K., Hussain J., Hussain M.A., Hussein N.R., Huynh H.-H., Hwang B.-F., Ibitoye S.E., Iftikhar P.M., Ikiroma A.I., Ikwegbue P.C., Ilic I.M., Ilic M.D., Immurana M., Isa M.A., Islam Md.R., Islam S.M.S., Ismail F., Ismail N.E., Isola G., Iwagami M., Iyamu I.O., Jacob L., Jacobsen K.H., Jafarinia M., Jahankhani K., Jahanmehr N., Jain N., Jairoun A.A., Mani R.J., Jamil S., Jamora R.D.G., Jatau A.I., Javadov S., Javaheri T., Jayaram S., Jee S.H., Jeganathan J., Jiang H., Jokar M., Jonas J.B., Joseph N., Joshua C.E., Jürisson M., Vaishali K., Kabir A., Kabir Z., Kadashetti V., Kalankesh L.R., Kalra S., Kamath A., Kamath R., Kamireddy A., Kanaan M., Kanchan T., Kanmiki E.W., Kanmodi K.K., Kansal S.K., Karim A., Karkhah S., Kashoo F.Z., Kasraei H., Kassel M.B., Katikireddi S.V., Kauppila J.H., Kaur H., Kayode G.A., Kazemi F., Kazemian S., Kebede F., Kendal E.S., Kesse-Guyot E., Khademvatan S., Khajuria H., Khalaji A., Khalid A., Khalid N., Khalilian A., Khamesipour F., Khan F., Khan M.J., Khan M.A.B., Khanmohammadi S., Khatab K., Khatatbeh H., Khatatbeh M.M., Khatib M.N., Kashani H.R.K., Kheirallah K.A., Khokhar M., Khormali M., Khorrami Z., Khosla A.A., Khosravi M., Khosrowjerdi M., Khubchandani J., Kifle Z.D., Kim G., Kim J.S., Kim M.S., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kisa S., Knibbs L.D., Knudsen A.K.S., Kochhar S., Kolahi A.-A., Kompani F., Koren G., Korzh O., Krishan K., Krishna V., Krishnamoorthy V., Bicer B.K., Kuddus M.A., Kuddus M., Kuitunen I., Kujan O., Kulimbet M., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar H., Kumar N., Kumar R., Kumar V., Kundu A., Kusuma D., Kyei-Arthur F., Kytö V., Kyu H.H., Vecchia C.L., Lacey B., Ladan M.A., Laflamme L., Lahariya C., Lai D.T.C., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lám J., Lan Q., Lan T., Landires I., Lanfranchi F., Langguth B., Lansingh V.C., Laplante-Lévesque A., Larijani B., Larsson A.O., Lasrado S., Lauriola P., Lawlor H.R., Le H.-H., Le L.K.D., Le N.H.H., Le T.T.T., Le T.D.T., Leasher J.L., Lee D.W., Lee M., Lee P.H., Lee S.-W., Lee S.W., Lee S.W.H., Lee Y.H., Leigh J., Leong E., Li M.-C., Libra M., Ligade V.S., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Limenh L.W., Lindholm D., Lindstedt P.A., Listl S., Liu G., Liu S., Liu X., Llanaj E., López-Bueno R., López-Gil J.F., Loreche A.M., Lotufo P.A., Lozano R., Lubinda J., Lucchetti G., Luo L., Lusk J.B., Lv L., Amin H.I.M., Ma Z.F., Maass K.L., Machairas N., Machoy M., Madureira-Carvalho Á.M., El Razek H.M.A., Maghazachi A.A., Prasad D.R.M., Mahalleh M., Mahasha P.W., Mahmoud M.A., Mahmoudi E., Mahmoudvand G., Makama M., Rad E.M., Malhotra K., Malik A.A., Malta D.C., Manla Y., Mansour A., Mansouri M.H., Mansouri P., Mansouri V., Mansourian M., Mansournia M.A., Marasini B.P., Marateb H.R., Maravilla J.C., Mardi P., Marjani A., Moghadam H.M., Arnedo C.A.M., Martinez G., Martinez-Piedra R., Martins-Melo F.R., Martorell M., Marx W., Marzo R.R., Masoudi S., Mathangasinghe Y., Mathioudakis A.G., Mathur M., Mathur N., Matozinhos F.P., Mattumpuram J., Maude R.J., Maugeri A., Mayeli M., Mazidi M., Mazzotti A., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McKowen A.L.W., McPhail M.A., McPhail S.M., Mehmood A., Mehrabani-Zeinabad K., Mehravar S., Meto T.M., Melese E.B., Mendez-Lopez M.A.M., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mensah G.A., Mensah L.G., Mentis A.-F.A., Meo S.A., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mersha A.M., Mestrovic T., Mettananda K.C.D., Mettananda S., Mhlanga A., Mhlanga L., Miazgowski T., Michalek I.M., de Sá A.C.M.G.N., Miller T.R., Minh L.H.N., Mirahmadi A., Mirijello A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mirzaei R., Mitchell P.B., Mittal C., Moberg M.E., Fard A.M., Mohajelin S., Mohamadkhani A., Mohamed A.I., Mohamed J., Mohamed M.F.H., Mohamed N.S., Mohammad A.M., Mohammadi S., Mohammed H., Mohammed M., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Momani S.M., Momtazmanesh S., Monasta L., Mondello S., Moni M.A., Montazeri F., Ghalibaf A.M., Moradi M., Moradi Y., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreira R.S., Morovatdar N., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Mosser J.F., Mossialos E., Motappa R., Mougin V., Mousavi P., Mrejen M., Mubarik S., Mueller U.O., Mulita F., Munjal K., Murillo-Zamora E., Musallam K.M., Musina A.-M., Mustafa G., Myung W., Nafei A., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi P., Naik G.R., Naik G., Nainu F., Najdaghi S., Ansari N.N., Nangia V., Swamy S.N., Nargus S., Davani D.N., Nascimento B.R., Nascimento G.G., Naser A.Y., Nashwan A.J., Natto Z.S., Nauman J., Navaratna S.N.K., Naveed M., Nawsherwan, Nayak B.P., Nayak V.C., Negash H., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Nejadghaderi S.A., Nejjari C., Nematollahi S., Netsere H.B., Ng M., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A.H., Nguyen D.H., Nguyen H.T.H., Nguyen N., Nguyen N.N.Y., Nguyen P.T., Nguyen Q.P., Nguyen V.T., Minh D.N.T., Niazi R.K., Nigatu Y.T., Niknam M., Nikoobar A., Nikpoor A.R., Nikravangolsefid N., Noman E.A., Nomura S., Noor S.T.A., Noroozi N., Nouri M., Nozari M., Nri-Ezedi C.A., Ntaios G., Nunemo M.H., Nurrika D., Nutor J.J., Nzoputam C.I., Nzoputam O.J., Oancea B., Obamiro K.O., Odetokun I.A., Oduro M.S., Ogundijo O.A., Ogunfowokan A.A., Ogunkoya A., Oguntade A.S., Oh I.-H., Ojo-Akosile T.R., Okati-Aliabad H., Okekunle A.P., Okonji O.C., Olagunju A.T., Olatubi M.I., Oliveira G.M.M., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oluwafemi Y.D., Omar H.A., Omer G.L., Ong S., Onie S., Onwujekwe O.E., Opejin A.O., Ordak M., Orish V.N., Ortiz A., Ortiz-Prado E., Osman W.M.S., Ostojic S.M., Ostroff S.M., Osuagwu U.L., Otoiu A., Otstavnov S.S., Ouyahia A., Owolabi M.O., Oyeyemi O.T., Ozair A., Mahesh Padukudru P.A., Padron-Monedero A., Padubidri J.R., Pal P.K., Palicz T., Pan F., Pan H.-F., Panda-Jonas S., Pandey A., Pando-Robles V., Pangaribuan H.U., Panos G.D., Panos L.D., Pantazopoulos I., Stoian A.M.P., Parikh R.R.

Publicada: 1 ene 2024
Resumen:
Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across

Filiaciones:
Vollset S.E.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 GBD Collaborating Unit, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway

Ababneh H.S.:
 Department of Radiation Oncology, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United States

Abate Y.H.:
 Department of Clinical Governance and Quality Improvement, Aleta Wondo Hospital, Aleta Wondo, Ethiopia

Abbafati C.:
 Department of Juridical and Economic Studies, La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy

Abbasgholizadeh R.:
 Doheny Eye Institute, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Abbasian M.:
 Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States

 Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Abbastabar H.:
 Advanced Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Abd Al Magied A.H.A.:
 College of Pharmacy, Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates

ElHafeez S.A.:
 Department of Epidemiology, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt

Abdelkader A.:
 Department of Mathematics and Sciences, Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates

Abdelmasseh M.:
 Department of Surgery, Marshall University, Huntington, WV, United States

Abd-Elsalam S.:
 Department of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt

Abdi P.:
 Department of Medicine, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada

Abdollahi M.:
 School of Pharmacy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Abdoun M.:
 Department of Medicine, University of Setif Algeria, Sétif, Algeria

Abdullahi A.:
 Department of Physiotherapy, Bayero University Kano, Kano, Nigeria

 Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong

Abebe M.:
 Department of Midwifery, Dilla University, Dilla, Ethiopia

Abiodun O.:
 Department of Community Medicine, Babcock University, Ilishan-Remo, Nigeria

Aboagye R.G.:
 Department of Family and Community Health, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana

Abolhassani H.:
 Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

 Department of Medical Biochemistry and Biophysics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden

Abouzid M.:
 Department of Physical Pharmacy and Pharmacokinetics, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Poznan, Poland

Aboye G.B.:
 Department of Public Health, Madda Walabu University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

 Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Jimma University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abreu L.G.:
 Department of Pediatric Dentistry, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Absalan A.:
 Medical Laboratory Sciences, Khomein University of Medical Sciences, Khomein, Iran

 Department of Research and Development, Satras Biotechnology Company, Tehran, Iran

Abualruz H.:
 Department of Nursing, Al Zaytoonah University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan

Abubakar B.:
 Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Sokoto, Nigeria

 Nigerian Institute of Medical Research, Nigerian Institute of Medical Research, Lagos, Nigeria

Abukhadijah H.J.J.:
 Department of Research, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar

Adekanmbi V.:
 Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, United States

Adetunji C.O.:
 Department of Microbiology, Edo State University Uzairue, Iyamho, Nigeria

Adetunji J.B.:
 Department of Biochemistry, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria

Adeyeoluwa T.E.:
 Department of Biosciences and Biotechnology, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo, Ondo, Nigeria

 Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

Adha R.:
 Department of Business Administration, Muhammadiyah University of Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia

Adhikary R.K.:
 Department of Fisheries and Marine Bioscience, Jashore University of Science and Technology, Jashore, Bangladesh

 Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Adnani Q.E.S.:
 Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia

Adzigbli L.A.:
 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana

Afrashteh F.:
 Department of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

 Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Afzal M.S.:
 Department of Life Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan

Afzal S.:
 Department of Community Medicine, King Edward Memorial Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan

 Department of Public Health, Public Health Institute, Lahore, Pakistan

Agbozo F.:
 Family and Community Health Department, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Hohoe, Ghana

 Department of Global and Public Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

Agodi A.:
 Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences and Advanced Technologies "GF Ingrassia", University of Catania, Catania, Italy

Agrawal A.:
 Trivedi School of Biosciences, Ashoka University, Sonipat, India

 Section of General Internal Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States

Agyemang-Duah W.:
 Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada

Ahinkorah B.O.:
 School of Public Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Ahlstrom A.J.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Ahmad A.:
 Department of Medical Biochemistry, Shaqra University, Shaqra, Saudi Arabia

Ahmad F.:
 College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

 University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Ahmad M.M.:
 Department of Clinical Nursing, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan

Ahmad S.:
 Department of Health and Biological Sciences, Abasyn University, Peshawar, Pakistan

 Department of Natural Sciences, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon

 Department of Medical Oncology, Miami Cancer Institute, Miami, FL, United States

Ahmed A.:
 Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden

 Institute of Endemic Diseases, University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan

Ahmed H.:
 Department of Biosciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan

Ahmed S.:
 Department of Biochemistry, Jamia Hamdard, Delhi, India

 Brody School of Medicine, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States

Ahmed S.A.:
 Brody School of Medicine, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States

Akinosoglou K.:
 Department of Internal Medicine, University of Patras, Patras, Greece

 Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University General Hospital of Patras, Patras, Greece

Akkaif M.A.:
 Department of Cardiology, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Akrami A.E.:
 Chicago College of Osteopathic Medicine, Midwestern University, Downers Grove, IL, United States

 Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States

 Department of Maternal and Child Health, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Awaidy S.A.:
 Communicable Diseases Adviser to Health Affairs, HQ, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman

 ME'NA-ISN Chairperson, Muscat, Oman

Al Hasan S.M.:
 Division of Public Health Sciences, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, United States

Al Mosa A.S.:
 Department of Medicine, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia

 Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia

Al Ta'ani O.:
 Department of Internal Medicine, Allegheny Health Network, Pittsburgh, PA, United States

Al Zaabi O.A.M.:
 Department of Adult Health and Critical Care, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman

Alahdab F.:
 McWilliams School of Biomedical Informatics, UTHealth, Houston, TX, United States

 Department of Biomedical Informatics, Biostatistics, and Epidemiology, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, United States

Alajlani M.M.:
 Faculty of Pharmacy, Al-Sham Private University, Damascus, Syrian Arab Republic

Al-Ajlouni Y.:
 School of Medicine, New York Medical College, Valhalla, NY, United States

 Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, United States

Alalalmeh S.O.:
 Department of Clinical Sciences, Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates

Al-Aly Z.:
 John T. Milliken Department of Internal Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO, United States

Alam K.:
 Murdoch Business School, Murdoch University, Perth, WA, Australia

Alam N.:
 Prevention Division, Queensland Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

 Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD, Australia

Alam T.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Alam Z.:
 Institute of Public Health, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates

Al-Amer R.M.:
 School of Nursing, Yarmouk University, Irbid, Jordan

 School of Nursing and Midwifery, Western Sydney University, Sydney, NSW, Australia

Alanezi F.M.:
 Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia

Alanzi T.M.:
 Department of Health Information Management and Technology, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia

 Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia

Albakri A.:
 Department of Medicine, Royal Jordanian Medical Services, Amman, Jordan

Aldhaleei W.A.:
 Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, United States

Aldridge R.W.:
 Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, United Kingdom

Alemohammad S.Y.:
 Robert Stempel College of Public Health and Social Work, Florida International University, Miami, FL, United States

Alemu Y.M.:
 National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Al-Gheethi A.A.S.:
 Global Centre for Environmental Remediation, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia

 Cooperative Research Centre for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment, Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Al-Hanawi M.K.:
 Department of Health Services and Hospital Administration, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

 Health Economics Research Group, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Ali A.:
 Department of Zoology, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Mardan, Pakistan

Ali I.:
 School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States

Ali M.U.:
 Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong

 Department of Medical Rehabilitation, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria

Ali R.:
 Department of Biosciences, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi, India

Ali S.S.S.:
 Center for Biotechnology and Microbiology, University of SWAT, Swat, Pakistan

Ali V.E.:
 Department of Medical Laboratory Sciences, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Nsukka, Nigeria

Ali W.:
 Department of Geography, Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman

Al-Ibraheem A.:
 Department of Nuclear Medicine, King Hussein Cancer Center, Amman, Jordan

 Department of Diagnostic Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan

Alicandro G.:
 Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy

 Cystic Fibrosis Center, Fondazione IRCCS Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy

Alif S.M.:
 School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Aljunid S.M.:
 Department of Health Policy and Management, Kuwait University, Kuwait, Kuwait

 International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, National University of Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Malaysia

Alla F.:
 Bordeaux School of Public Health, University of Bordeaux, Bordeaux, France

Al-Mekhlafi H.M.:
 Department of Parasitology, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

 Department of Parasitology, Sana'a University, Sana'a, Yemen

Alqutaibi A.Y.:
 Department of Prosthodontics and Implant Dentistry, Taibah University, Medinah, Saudi Arabia

 Department of Prosthodontics, Ibb University, Ibb, Yemen

Alrawashdeh A.:
 Department of Allied Medical Sciences, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan

Alrousan S.M.:
 Macro-Fiscal Policy Department, Ministry of Finance, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Al-Sabah S.K.:
 Department of Surgery, Kuwait University, Kuwait, Kuwait

 Jaber Al Ahmad Al Sabah Hospital, Ministry of Health, Kuwait, Kuwait

Alsabri M.A.:
 Department of Emergency Medicine, Sana'a University, Sanaa, Yemen

Altaany Z.:
 Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Yarmouk Univeristy, Irbid, Jordan

Al-Tammemi A.B.:
 Research, Policy and Training Directorate, Jordan Center for Disease Control, Amman, Jordan

 Applied Science Research Center, Applied Science Private University, Amman, Jordan

Al-Tawfiq J.A.:
 Department of Specialty Internal Medicine, Johns Hopkins Aramco Healthcare, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

 Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, United States

Altirkawi K.A.:
 University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Aluh D.O.:
 Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacy Management, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Nsukka, Nigeria

 Lisbon Institute of Global Mental Health, Nova University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal

Alvis-Guzman N.:
 Research Group in Hospital Management and Health Policies, Universidad de la Costa, Barranquilla, Colombia

 Research Group in Health Economics, University of Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia

Al-Wardat M.S.:
 Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan

Al-Worafi Y.M.:
 Department of Medical Sciences, Azal University for Human Development, Sana'a, Yemen

 Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Science and Technology of Fujairah, Fujairah, United Arab Emirates

Aly H.:
 Department of Pediatrics, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, United States

Alyahya M.S.:
 Faculty of Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Alramtha, Jordan

Alzoubi K.H.:
 Department of Pharmacy Practice and Pharmacotherapeutics, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

 University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

 Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan

Al-Zyoud W.:
 Department of Biomedical Engineering, German Jordanian University, Amman, Jordan

Amani R.:
 Interdisciplinary Graduate Program in Human Toxicology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States

 Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

Ameyaw E.K.:
 School of Graduate Studies, Lingnan University, Hong Kong

Amin T.T.:
 Public Health and Community Medicine Department, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt

Amindarolzarbi A.:
 Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States

Amiri S.:
 Medicine, Quran and Hadith Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Amu H.:
 Department of Population and Behavioural Sciences, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana

Amugsi D.A.:
 Department of Maternal and Child Wellbeing, African Population and Health Research Center, Nairobi, Kenya

Ancuceanu R.:
 Faculty of Pharmacy, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania

Anderlini D.:
 Centre for Sensorimotor Performance, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia

Andrei C.L.:
 Department of Cardiology, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania

Andrews E.A.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Anoushiravani A.:
 Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Antony C.M.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Anuoluwa B.S.:
 Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of Medical Sciences, Ondo, Ondo, Nigeria

Arabloo J.:
 Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

 Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Arafa E.A.:
 Department of Clinical Sciences, Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates

Aravkin A.Y.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Ardekani A.:
 Health Policy Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

Ariffin H.:
 Department of Paediatrics, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

 University of Malaya Medical Centre, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Arumugam A.:
 Department of Physiotherapy, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

 University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Asghari-Jafarabadi M.:
 School of Public Health and Preventative Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Ashbaugh C.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Atorkey P.:
 School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Awotidebe A.W.:
 Department of Physiotherapy, Bayero University Kano, Kano, Nigeria

Ayatollahi H.:
 Health Management and Economics Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

 Department of Health Information Management, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

 Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Azadnajafabad S.:
 Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Bagheri N.:
 Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Balcha W.F.:
 Department of Midwifery, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

Barchitta M.:
 Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences and Advanced Technologies "GF Ingrassia", University of Catania, Catania, Italy

Bärnighausen T.W.:
 T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States

Barqawi H.J.:
 Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

 University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Bastan M.-M.:
 Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

 School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

 Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Basu S.:
 Center for Primary Care, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States

Bayati M.:
 Health Human Resources Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran

Behnoush A.H.:
 School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Bemanalizadeh M.:
 Department of Pediatric Neurology, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Bhattacharjee N.V.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Bisignano C.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Bodolica V.:
 University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

Bodunrin A.O.:
 Department of Computer Science, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC, United States

Hashemi M.B.:
 Urology Department, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Borhany H.:
 Internal Medicine Department of SBMU, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Bosoka S.A.:
 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana

Boyko E.J.:
 School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Brauer M.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Bryazka D.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Burkart K.:
 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

 School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Burns R.A.:
 Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Bustanji Y.:
 Department of Basic Biomedical Sciences, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

 University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates

 Department of Biopharmaceutics and Clinical Pharmacy, The University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan

dos Santos F.L.C.:
 Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
ISSN: 01406736
Editorial
Lancet Publishing Group, 360 PARK AVE SOUTH, NEW YORK, NY 10010-1710 USA, Estados Unidos America
Tipo de documento: Article
Volumen: 403 Número: 10440
Páginas: 2204-2256
WOS Id: 001271482100001
ID de PubMed: 38762325
imagen All Open Access; Green Open Access

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