Enhancing geostatistical precipitation estimations for the Santiago River basin, Mexico
Por:
Avila-Carrasco, JR, Junez-Ferreira, HE, Herrera, GD
Publicada:
1 ene 2024
Resumen:
Accurate precipitation estimation is crucial for understanding the hydrological cycle, its applications in basin-specific planning, and outliers event prediction. Multivariate geostatistics leverage correlated variables, such as terrain elevation and shoreline distance, to reduce estimation error uncertainty. However, the distinct characteristics of humid and dry seasons demand specific estimation approaches. Precise precipitation estimation poses a challenge in the vast and diverse Santiago River basin (SRB) along Mexico's west coast. This study assessed precipitation estimates for dry and humid seasons using ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging with altitude and shoreline distance as auxiliary variables. Evaluation of error metrics revealed superior results incorporating shoreline distance as a covariable in the wet month of July, especially after logarithmic transformation, yielding a 17% improvement in average standardized error compared to the univariate approach. Conversely, optimal results were achieved for the dry month (February) using ordinary kriging excluding outliers' values, effectively reducing the average squared error.
Filiaciones:
Avila-Carrasco, JR:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ingn, Dept Hidraul, Div Ingn Civil & Geomat, Circuito Escolar 04360,Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, Mexico
Junez-Ferreira, HE:
Univ Autonoma Zacatecas Francisco Garcia Salinas, Unidad Academ Ciencia & Tecnol Luz & Mat, Ciencia & Tecnol Agua, Circuito Marie Curie S-N,Parque Ciencia & Tecnol Q, Zacatecas 98160, Zacatecas, Mexico
Herrera, GD:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Dept Recursos Nat, Circuito Invest Cient S-N,Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04150, Mexico
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