Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico
Por:
Estrada, Francisco, Mendoza, Alma, Murray, Guillermo, Calderon-Bustamante, Oscar, Botzen, Wouter, De León Escobedo T., Velasco, Julian A.
Publicada:
9 mar 2023
Categoría:
Environmental science (miscellaneous)
Resumen:
The collection of publicly available databases about climate change and
its impacts on natural and human systems is unprecedented and
ever-growing. However, the requirements of information can vary widely
among users depending on their region, socioenvironmental context, and
interests. Moreover, in the current era of active mitigation and
adaptation policies, information needs are frequently not satisfied even
by these massive and variated collections of databases. The development
and use of emulators can help closing this information gap by allowing
users to approximate the output from complex models and create
user-defined experiments, without being technically or computational
demanding on the user. Here, a simple emulator of the EPIC biophysical
crop model is presented which is able to adequately reproduce the
changes in rainfed maize and to create projections for user-defined
scenarios. Moreover, it allows to produce risk measures that are not
available with the original model. The proposed methodology is
illustrated with a case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico for
a reference emissions scenario (SSP370) and two user-defined
international mitigation policy scenarios. These scenarios represent 1)
current international mitigation commitments and 2) a scenario in which
China withdraws from international mitigation efforts. Results showed
that, under the reference scenario, climate change could have widespread
consequences on rainfed production all over the country with decreases
in yields reaching up to 80% in the southeast and northeast of the
country. These impacts can be partially modulated by the moderately
ambitious mitigation commitments assumed in recent international
agreements if all countries comply. However, a potential withdraw of
China from these efforts would significantly reduce any benefits from
international mitigation. Under all scenarios, changes in productivity
impose increasing risks for already vulnerable populations and
considerable economic costs at the state and national levels. These
results suggest the urgent need for critical planning for adaptation in
the agricultural sector of the country.
Filiaciones:
Estrada, Francisco:
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City, Mexico
Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Programa Invest Cambio Climat, Mexico City, Mexico
Mendoza, Alma:
Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Programa Invest Cambio Climat, Mexico City, Mexico
Murray, Guillermo:
Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Invest Ecosistemas & Sustentabilidad, Mexico City, Mexico
Calderon-Bustamante, Oscar:
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City, Mexico
Botzen, Wouter:
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Utrecht University School of Economics (U.S.E.), Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Utrecht Univ Sch Econ USE, Utrecht, Netherlands
De León Escobedo T.:
Posgrado en Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Velasco, Julian A.:
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Posgrad Geog, Mexico City, Mexico
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