Predictions of current and potential global invasion risk in populations of lionfish (Pterois volitans and Pterois miles) under climate change scenarios
Por:
Loya-Cancino K.F., Ángeles-González L.E., Yañez-Arenas C., Ibarra-Cerdeña C.N., Velazquez-Abunader, Ivan, Aguilar-Perera, Alfonso, Vidal-Martínez V.M.
Publicada:
1 ene 2023
Resumen:
Populations of lionfish (Pterois volitans Linnaeus, 1758; Pterois miles Bennett, 1828) have expanded in the western Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea since their introduction and have become a biological invasive species. This invasion has impacted these regions' marine biodiversity, and their impact is expected to increase due to climate change. Our work evaluated the current and future potential risk of lionfish populations during climate change scenarios based on the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. MaxEnt was used to predict lionfish populations’ suitability for current conditions and under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. Lionfish had an estimated range of physiological tolerances from 10–15 °C to 30 °C. According to our analyses, lionfish can live off the coasts of western Africa, the Americas, and the Mediterranean Sea. Under mild warming scenarios, suitable conditions for lionfish could expand to higher latitudes due to their high thermal range and salinity tolerance. Our models predicted that lionfish could reach the coasts of France, the United Kingdom, Uruguay, South Africa, and New Zealand, among other regions, under warming scenarios. However, under the warmest scenario (RCP 8.5), tropical latitudes may become less suitable for lionfish, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Our results may be useful for resource managers to foresee where to increase efforts in lionfish fisheries and consumption. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
Filiaciones:
Loya-Cancino K.F.:
Laboratorios de Parasitología y Pesquerías, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Antigua Carretera a Progreso Km 6, Yucatán, Mérida, 97310, Mexico
Ángeles-González L.E.:
Unidad Multidisciplinaria de Docencia e Investigación, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Yucatán, Sisal, 97356, Mexico
Yañez-Arenas C.:
Facultad de Ciencias, Laboratorio de Conservación de la Biodiversidad, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Yucatán, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Km. 5.5 Carr. Sierra Papacal-Chuburná Puerto, Sierra Papacal, Yucatán, Mérida, 97302, Mexico
Ibarra-Cerdeña C.N.:
Departamento de Ecología Humana, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Antigua Carretera a Progreso Km 6, Yucatán, Mérida, 97310, Mexico
Velazquez-Abunader, Ivan:
Laboratorios de Parasitología y Pesquerías, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Antigua Carretera a Progreso Km 6, Yucatán, Mérida, 97310, Mexico
Inst Politecn Nacl, Labs Parasitol & Pesquerias, Ctr Invest & Estudios Avanzados, Antigua Carretera Progreso Km 6, Merida 97310, Yucatan, Mexico
Aguilar-Perera, Alfonso:
Departamento de Biología Marina, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Km. 15.5, Carretera Mérida-Xmatkuil, Apdo. Postal 4-116 Itzimná, Yucatán, Mérida, 97100, Mexico
Univ Autonoma Yucatan, Dept Biol Marina, Km 15-5,Carretera Merida Xmatkuil, Merida 97100, Yucatan, Mexico
Vidal-Martínez V.M.:
Laboratorios de Parasitología y Pesquerías, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Antigua Carretera a Progreso Km 6, Yucatán, Mérida, 97310, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ciencias, Unidad Multidisciplinaria Docencia & Invest, Sisal 97356, Yucatan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ciencias, Lab Conservac Biodivers, Parque Cient & Tecnol Yucatan, Km 5-5 Carr Sierra Papacal Chuburna Puerto, Merida 97302, Yucatan, Mexico
Inst Politecn Nacl, Ctr Invest & Estudios Avanzados, Dept Ecol Humana, Antigua Carretera Progreso Km 6, Merida 97310, Yucatan, Mexico
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