Assessment of the Spatial Variation in the Occurrence and Intensity of Major Hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere
Por:
Martinez L.-C., Romero, David, Alfaro, Eric J.
Publicada:
1 ene 2023
Categoría:
Atmospheric science
Resumen:
Major hurricanes are a critical hazard for North and Central America.
The present study investigated the trends of occurrence, affectation,
and intensity of major hurricanes in the North Atlantic and Northeast
Pacific Oceans using GIS applications to the IBTrACS database. The study
period ranged from 1970 to 2021. Tropical cyclones were sampled using a
grid composed of 3.5 degrees hexagonal cells; in addition, trends were
obtained to assess the effect of long-term variability from natural
phenomena and climate change. Critical factors influencing these trends
at the oceanic scale and for each hexagon were determined using
multivariate and multiscale analysis by the application of stepwise
analysis and the related ANOVA. The integrated variables related to
atmospheric and oceanographic oscillations and patterns, i.e., spatial
variables resampled with the same analysis unit and climate indices. Our
results indicated marked spatial areas with significant trends in
occurrence and intensity. Additionally, there was evidence of linear
changes in the number of major hurricanes and an increase in the maximum
annual speed of +1.61 m s(-1) in the North Atlantic basin and +1.75 m
center dot s(-1) in the Northeast Pacific, reported for a 10-year
period. In terms of occurrence, there were increases of 19% and 5%,
respectively, which may be related to ocean warming and natural
variability associated with oceanic and atmospheric circulation.
Filiaciones:
Martinez L.-C.:
Faculty of Sciences, UMDI Sisal, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Sisal, 97356, Mexico
Romero, David:
National School of Superior Studies—Merida, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Ucu, 97357, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Natl Sch Super Studies Merida, Merida 97357, Mexico
Alfaro, Eric J.:
Center for Geophysical Research, School of Physics and Center for Research in Marine Sciences and Limnology, University of Costa Rica, San Jose, 11501, Costa Rica
Univ Costa Rico, Ctr Geophys Res, Sch Phys, San Jose 11501, Costa Rica
Univ Costa Rico, Ctr Res Marine Sci & Limnol, San Jose 11501, Costa Rica
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Sci, UMDI Sisal, Sisal 97356, Mexico
gold, Gold
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