Stability, Bifurcation, and a Pair of Conserved Quantities in a Simple Epidemic System with Reinfection for the Spread of Diseases Caused by Coronaviruses
Por:
Camacho J.F., Vargas-De-León C.
Publicada:
1 ene 2021
Categoría:
Modeling and simulation
Resumen:
In this paper, we study a modified SIRI model without vital dynamics, based on a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations, for epidemics that exhibit partial immunity after infection, reinfection, and disease-induced death. This model can be applied to study epidemics caused by SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses, since there is the possibility that, in diseases caused by these pathogens, individuals recovered from the infection have a decrease in their immunity and can be reinfected. On the other hand, it is known that, in populations infected by these coronaviruses, individuals with comorbidities or older people have significant mortality rates or deaths induced by the disease. By means of qualitative methods, we prove that such system has an endemic equilibrium and an infinite line of nonhyperbolic disease-free equilibria, we determine the local and global stability of these equilibria, and we also show that it has no periodic orbits. Furthermore, we calculate the basic reproductive number R0 and find that the system exhibits a forward bifurcation: disease-free equilibria are stable when R0<1/s and unstable when R0>1/s, while the endemic equilibrium consist of an asymptotically stable upper branch that appears from R0>1/s, s being the rate that quantifies reinfection. We also show that this system has two conserved quantities. Additionally, we show some of the most representative numerical solutions of this system. © 2021 Jorge Fernando Camacho and Cruz Vargas-De-León.
Filiaciones:
Camacho J.F.:
Maestría en Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Autónoma de la Ciudad de México, Mexico City, 03100, Mexico
Vargas-De-León C.:
Facultad de Matemáticas, Universidad Autónoma de Guerrero, Av. Lázaro Cárdenas CU, Chilpancingo, Guerrero, 39087, Mexico
Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación, Escuela Superior de Medicina, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Ciudad de México, Mexico
División de Investigación, Hospital Juárez de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
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