Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land-use/cover change scenarios in Mexico
Por:
Ureta C., Ramírez-Barrón M., Sánchez-García E.A., Cuervo-Robayo A.P., Munguía-Carrara M., Mendoza-Ponce A., Gay C., Sánchez-Cordero V.
Publicada:
1 ene 2022
Resumen:
There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land-use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait-based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores–granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body-sized groups, large-sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi-aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full-dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non-dispersal assumption. Species-rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species-rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High-risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species-rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function. © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Filiaciones:
Ureta C.:
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Investigadora por México-CONACyT, Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Ramírez-Barrón M.:
Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Sánchez-García E.A.:
Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Cuervo-Robayo A.P.:
Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Insurgentes Sur-Periférico, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Munguía-Carrara M.:
Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Insurgentes Sur-Periférico, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Mendoza-Ponce A.:
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Gay C.:
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio Climático, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Sánchez-Cordero V.:
Departamento de Zoología, Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Hybrid Gold
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