Wind-Ramp Predictability
Por:
Pereyra-Castro, Karla, Caetano, Ernesto
Publicada:
1 mar 2022
Resumen:
The intermittent nature of wind resources is challenging for their
integration into the electrical system. The identification of weather
systems and the accurate forecast of wind ramps can improve wind-energy
management. In this study, extreme wind ramps were characterized at four
different geographical sites in terms of duration, persistence, and
weather system. Mid-latitude systems are the main cause of wind ramps in
Mexico during winter. The associated ramps last around 3 h, but intense
winds are sustained for up to 40 h. Storms cause extreme wind ramps in
summer due to the downdraft contribution to the wind gust. Those events
last about 1 to 3 h. Dynamic downscaling is computationally costly, and
statistical techniques can improve wind forecasting. Evaluation of the
North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) operational model to
simulate wind ramps and two bias-correction methods (simple bias and
quantile mapping) was done for two selected sites. The statistical
adjustment reduces the excess of no-ramps (<=|0.5| m/s) predicted by NAM
compared to observed wind ramps. According to the contingency
table-derived indices, the wind-ramp distribution correction with simple
bias method or quantile mapping method improves the prediction of
positive and negative ramps.
Filiaciones:
Pereyra-Castro, Karla:
Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, 04510, Mexico
Caetano, Ernesto:
Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, 04510, Mexico
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