Early estimation of the risk factors for hospitalization and mortality by COVID-19 in Mexico
Por:
Carrillo-Vega M.F., Salinas-Escudero G., García-Peña C., Gutiérrez-Robledo L.M., Parra-Rodríguez L.
Publicada:
1 ene 2020
Categoría:
Multidisciplinary
Resumen:
Background Due to a high prevalence of chronic non-degenerative diseases, it is suspected that COVID 19 poses a high risk of fatal complications for the Mexican population. The present study aims to estimate the risk factors for hospitalization and death in the Mexican population infected by SARS-CoV-2. Methods and findings We used the publicly available data released by the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases of the Mexican Ministry of Health (Secretaría de Salud, SSA). All records of positive SARS-CoV-2 cases were included. Two multiple logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the association between hospitalization and mortality, with other covariables. Data on 10,544 individuals (57.68% men), with mean age 46.47±15.62, were analyzed. Men were about 1.54 times more likely to be hospitalized than women (p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.37–1.74); individuals aged 50–74 and =74 were more likely to be hospitalized than people aged 25–49 (OR 2.05, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.81–2.32, and OR 3.84, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.90–5.15, respectively). People with hypertension, obesity, and diabetes were more likely to be hospitalized than people without these comorbidities (p<0.01). Men had more risk of death in comparison to women (OR = 1.53, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.30–1.81) and individuals aged 50–74 and =75 were more likely to die than people aged 25–49 (OR 1.96, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.63–2.34, and OR 3.74, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.80–4.98, respectively). Hypertension, obesity, and diabetes presented in combination conveyed a higher risk of dying in comparison to not having these diseases (OR = 2.10; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 1.50–2.93). Hospitalization, intubation and pneumonia entail a higher risk of dying (OR 5.02, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.88–6.50; OR 4.27, p<0.001, 95% C.I. 3.26–5.59, and OR = 2.57; p<0.001, 95% C.I. 2.11–3.13, respectively). Our study’s main limitation is the lack of information on mild (asymptomatic) or moderate cases of COVID-19. Conclusions The present study points out that in Mexico, where an important proportion of the population has two or more chronic conditions simultaneously, a high mortality rate is a serious risk for those infected by SARS-CoV-2. © 2020 Carrillo-Vega et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Filiaciones:
Carrillo-Vega M.F.:
Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
Salinas-Escudero G.:
Center for Economic and Social Studies in Health, Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez, Mexico City, Mexico
García-Peña C.:
Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
Gutiérrez-Robledo L.M.:
Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
Parra-Rodríguez L.:
Research Department, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico
Gold
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