A New Inclusive Volcanic Risk Ranking, Part 2: Application to Latin America
Por:
Guimarães L.F., Nieto-Torres, Amiel, Bonadonna, Costanza, Frischknecht, Corine
Publicada:
18 oct 2021
Categoría:
Earth and planetary sciences (miscellaneous)
Resumen:
Volcanic Risk Ranking (VRR) methods have been developed worldwide as a
way to hierarchize the volcanic systems and help target strategies for
risk reduction. Such hierarchization is especially important in areas
characterized by a large number of active volcanoes but limited
resources. This is the case of Latin America, where large populations
live nearby almost 300 active volcanoes. Here we assess the volcanic
systems in Latin America with at least one eruption in the last 1,000
years based on the VRR strategy presented in a companion paper that
accounts for the 4 main risk factors: hazard, exposure, vulnerability
and resilience. Our results reveal that, among the 123 volcanoes
analyzed, Santiaguito, Tacana and Fuego are those with the highest score
in the 3-factor VRR (HxExV), while Ecuador, Marchena and Santiago are
among the systems with the lowest score. Barcena and Pinta score zero as
there is no exposure. Although vulnerability significantly contributes
to the VRR score, hazard and exposure are the main factors that define
the risk of Latin American volcanic systems in the proposed 3-factor
VRR, while resilience contributes to its reduction in the proposed
4-factor VRR strategy. In this regard, Arenal, Copahue, Villarrica,
Ubinas, Irazu and Poas are the systems with the highest number of risk
reduction strategies in place. Atitlan, Almolonga and Tecuamburro are
the volcanic systems with the highest score in the 4-factor VRR
[(HxExV)/(Res+1)], combining moderate hazard, exposure and
vulnerability and low resilience; Barcena, Pinta, Ecuador, Marchena and
Santiago receive the lowest scores due to no or low exposure.
Santiaguito, Tacana, El Chichon and Ceboruco are characterized by high
scores in the 3-factor VRR and also stand out as some of those with few
risk reduction strategies implemented; thus they have intermediate to
high scores also in the 4-factor VRR. Recognizing that hazard is
difficult to mitigate and reducing exposure may depend on hardly
feasible relocation of infrastructure and already established
communities, we emphasize that measures to reduce vulnerability and
increase resilience should be promoted (e.g., creating
redundancy/accessibility to infrastructure, carrying out risk assessment
studies, implementing early warning systems, developing emergency plans
and promoting educational activities).
Filiaciones:
Guimarães L.F.:
Geoscience Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Nieto-Torres, Amiel:
Departamento de Vulcanología, Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Dept Vulcanol, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
Bonadonna, Costanza:
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Univ Geneva, Dept Earth Sci, Geneva, Switzerland
Frischknecht, Corine:
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Univ Geneva, Dept Earth Sci, Geneva, Switzerland
Univ Sao Paulo, Geosci Inst, Sao Paulo, Brazil
gold, Green Published, Gold
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