WRF wind forecast over coastal complex terrain: Baja California Peninsula (Mexico) case study
Por:
Pereyra-Castro, Karla, Caetano, Ernesto, Altamirano del Razo, Diego
Publicada:
1 oct 2021
Resumen:
Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) near surface wind forecast
sensitivity to planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme over complex
terrain of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico, is examined. Yonsei
University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and Asymmetric Convective
Model version 2 (ACM2) PBL schemes are evaluated using the Taylor
diagram, mean absolute error skill score (MAESS), and mean absolute
error standardized anomaly metrics. Additionally, forecasted wind ramp
distribution is analyzed. YSU scheme improves forecast accuracy in
winter for most of the weather stations. Meanwhile, during summer, the
performance of PBL schemes varies depending on physiographical
environment of the weather station site. WRF forecast tends to generate
a greater number of up/down wind ramp events than observed in the range
of 2 m/s. The diurnal behavior of wind speed is well reproduced by all
PBL schemes; however, the wind speed variability is smoother than the
observed. The ability of the ACM2 scheme to perform well in winter and
summer may be related to the critical factor that determines the
contribution ratio of non-local mixing to total turbulent mixing. The
WRF is capable of accurately forecasting the synoptic-scale energy power
spectrum in winter; however, in the mesoscale range, the simulated
spectrum underestimates the energy for both seasons.
Filiaciones:
Pereyra-Castro, Karla:
Caetano, E (Corresponding Author), Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Pereyra-Castro, Karla, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Posgrad Ciencias Tierra, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Caetano, Ernesto, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Altamirano del Razo, Diego, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ingn, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Caetano, Ernesto:
Caetano, E (Corresponding Author), Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Pereyra-Castro, Karla, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Posgrad Ciencias Tierra, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Caetano, Ernesto, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Altamirano del Razo, Diego, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ingn, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Altamirano del Razo, Diego:
Caetano, E (Corresponding Author), Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Pereyra-Castro, Karla, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Posgrad Ciencias Tierra, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Caetano, Ernesto, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico. Altamirano del Razo, Diego, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ingn, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
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