Surveillance system for acute severe infections with epidemic potential based on a deterministic-stochastic model, the StochCum Method
Por:
Castanon-Gonzalez, Jorge A., Polanco-Gonzalez, Carlos, Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Ricardo, Carrillo-Ruiz, Jose D.
Publicada:
1 jul 2021
Categoría:
Surgery
Resumen:
Background: The dynamic interactions of severe infectious diseases with
epidemic potential and their hosts are complex. Therefore, it remains
uncertain if a sporadic zoonosis restricted to a certain area will
become a global pandemic or something in between. Objective: The
objective of the study was to present a surveillance system for acute
severe infections with epidemic potential based on a
deterministic-stochastic model, the StochCum Method. Design: The
StochCum Method is founded on clinical, administrative, and
sociodemographic variables that provide a space/time map as a preventive
warning of possible outbreaks of severe infections that can be
complemented based on the sum of all the first accumulated cases. If the
outbreak is happening in high-risk areas, an early warning can be
elicited to activate the health response system and save time while
waiting for the confirmation of symptomatic cases. Results: The
surveillance system was tested virtually for 1 month on admissions to
the Emergency Room of a public hospital located in Mexico City, Mexico.
It promptly identified simulated cases of acute respiratory infections
with epidemic potential. Conclusions: The StochCum method proved to be a
practical and useful system for conducting epidemic surveillance on a
hospital network.
Filiaciones:
Polanco-Gonzalez, Carlos:
Castanon-Gonzalez, JA (Corresponding Author), 1 Col Balcones Herradura, Huixquilucan 52785, Edo De Mexico, Mexico. Castanon-Gonzalez, Jorge A
Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Ricardo:
Castanon-Gonzalez, JA (Corresponding Author), 1 Col Balcones Herradura, Huixquilucan 52785, Edo De Mexico, Mexico. Castanon-Gonzalez, Jorge A
Gold
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