Meridional Migration of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis: Joint Contribution of Interhemispheric Temperature Differential and ENSO
Por:
Zhao, Haikun, Zhao, Kai, Cao, Jian, Klotzbach, Philip J., Raga, Graciela B., Ma, Zhanhong
Publicada:
27 may 2021
Resumen:
This study finds that the meridional migration of tropical cyclogenesis
(TCG) between June and November over the eastern North Pacific is mainly
due to changes in the Hadley circulation and associated changes in the
location of the intertropical convergence zone as modulated by ENSO and
the interhemispheric temperature differential (ITD). These two factors
are largely independent of each other and play significant and nearly
equivalent roles in the meridional migration of TCG over the ENP from
1979 to 2018. Through the use of regression models, we find that the
combination of these two factors has significant skill in capturing
annual TCG meridional distribution over the ENP basin. June-October
ENSO, as defined by Nino-3.4, can be skillfully predicted with similar
to 1 season lead time, while ITD can be skillfully predicted similar to
3 seasons in advance. This predictability allows for the potential for
seasonal outlooks of TCG meridional movement over the ENP. The influence
of ITD on TCG meridional migration over the ENP has repercussions on
climate change timescales as well, due to the potential TCG meridional
migration over the ENP in response to global warming. Under the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, the ITD shows a robust increase
among the 23 models of version 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project. However, the considerable uncertainty in the model response of
ENSO to global warming reduces confidence in projections of TCG
meridional migration over the ENP.
Filiaciones:
Zhao, Haikun:
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, and Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, and Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Zhao, Kai:
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Cao, Jian:
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Klotzbach, Philip J.:
Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
Raga, Graciela B.:
Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Ma, Zhanhong:
College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China
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