A simple criterion to design optimal non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks
Por:
Tulio Angulo, Marco, Castanos, Fernando, Moreno-Morton, Rodrigo, Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge X., Moreno, Jaime A.
Publicada:
12 may 2021
Resumen:
For mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, much emphasis is made on
implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to keep the reproduction
number below one. However, using that objective ignores that some of
these interventions, like bans of public events or lockdowns, must be
transitory and as short as possible because of their significant
economic and societal costs. Here, we derive a simple and mathematically
rigorous criterion for designing optimal transitory non-pharmaceutical
interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. We find that reducing
the reproduction number below one is sufficient but not necessary.
Instead, our criterion prescribes the required reduction in the
reproduction number according to the desired maximum of disease
prevalence and the maximum decrease of disease transmission that the
interventions can achieve. We study the implications of our theoretical
results for designing non-pharmaceutical interventions in 16 cities and
regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we estimate the
minimal reduction of each region's contact rate necessary to control the
epidemic optimally. Our results contribute to establishing a rigorous
methodology to design optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policies
for mitigating epidemic outbreaks.
Filiaciones:
Tulio Angulo, Marco:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, CONACyT Inst Math, Juriquilla 76230, Mexico
Castanos, Fernando:
Cinvestav IPN, Dept Automat Control, Ciudad De Mexico 07360, Mexico
Moreno-Morton, Rodrigo:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Sci, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
Velasco-Hernandez, Jorge X.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Math, Juriquilla 76230, Mexico
Moreno, Jaime A.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Engn, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, Mexico
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