Effects of climate change and human influence in the distribution and range overlap between two widely distributed avian scavengers
Por:
Saenz-Jimenez, Fausto, Rojas-Soto, Octavio, Pérez-Torres J.A.I.R.O., Martinez-Meyer, Enrique, Sheppard, James K.
Publicada:
1 mar 2021
Ahead of Print:
1 ene 2020
Resumen:
Climate change can cause geographic displacement of the ecological niche
of a species, so that similar species that previously did not coexist
could begin to face new interactions. Such geographic displacement and
increased competition can also be exacerbated by anthropic intervention.
Until less than 100 years ago, Vultur gryphus and Coragyps atratus did
not coexist. Nowadays, possibly as a result of climate change, changes
in the distributions of both species created areas where they are now
sympatric. Through ecological niche modeling, we evaluated the possible
effects that future scenarios of climate change and human influence
would have on the distribution and sympatry between the two species. Our
models predict that the current distribution of V. gryphus will be
reduced between 18% and 24% by 2050 and between 21% and 32% by 2070.
Additionally, they predict that the distribution of C. atratus will be
reduced by 31-52% by the year 2050 and 15-60% by 2070. The two
algorithms predict a reduction in the areas of sympatry. However, for
the northern Andes the overlap between the two species will increase,
reaching up to 70% in the year 2070. The distribution of C. atratus
will move towards higher areas in the altitudinal gradient, and this
will generate an increase in the current sympatry between both species.
No clear trend was observed on the effect of human influences on the
areas of overlap between the scenarios evaluated. The possible effects
of climate change and anthropic intervention in future scenarios found
in this study highlight the need to include these effects in future
analyses and conservation programs of V. gryphus and other threatened
vultures.
Filiaciones:
Saenz-Jimenez, Fausto:
Laboratorio de Ecología Funcional, Unidad de Ecología y Sistemática (UNESIS), Departamento de Biología, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia
Fundación Neotropical, Bogotá, Colombia
Rojas-Soto, Octavio:
Red de Biología Evolutiva, Laboratorio de Bioclimatología, Instituto de Ecología, A.C. Ver., Xalapa, Mexico
Pérez-Torres J.A.I.R.O.:
Laboratorio de Ecología Funcional, Unidad de Ecología y Sistemática (UNESIS), Departamento de Biología, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia
Martinez-Meyer, Enrique:
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, D.F., Mexico
Sheppard, James K.:
San Diego Zoo Global, Institute for Conservation Research, San Diego, United States
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