Forecast generation model of municipal solid waste using multiple linear regression


Por: Araiza-Aguilar, J. A., Rojas-Valencia, M. N., Aguilar-Vera, R. A.

Publicada: 1 ene 2019
Categoría: Environmental science (miscellaneous)

Resumen:
The objective of this study was to develop a forecast model to determine the rate of generation of municipal solid waste in the municipalities of the Cuenca del Canon del Sumidero, Chiapas, Mexico. Multiple linear regression was used with social and demographic explanatory variables. The compiled database consisted of 9 variables with 118 specific data per variable, which were analyzed using a multicollinearity test to select the most important ones. Initially, different regression models were generated, but only 2 of them were considered useful, because they used few predictors that were statistically significant. The most important variables to predict the rate of waste generation in the study area were the population of each municipality, the migration and the population density. Although other variables, such as daily per capita income and average schooling are very important, they do not seem to have an effect on the response variable in this study. The model with the highest parsimony resulted in an adjusted coefficient of 0.975, an average absolute percentage error of 7.70, an average absolute deviation of 0.16 and an average root square error of 0.19, showing a high influence on the phenomenon studied and a good predictive capacity. (c) 2020 GJESM. All rights reserved.

Filiaciones:
Araiza-Aguilar, J. A.:
 Univ Sci & Arts Chiapas, Sch Environm Engn, North Beltway, Tuxtla Gutierrez, Chiapas, Mexico

Rojas-Valencia, M. N.:
 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Engn, Mexico City, DF, Mexico

Aguilar-Vera, R. A.:
 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
ISSN: 23833572
Editorial
Iran Solid Waste Association, UNIV TEHRAN, PO BOX 1417853111, TEHRAN, 19166, IRAN, Irán
Tipo de documento: Article
Volumen: 6 Número: 1
Páginas: 1-14
WOS Id: 000496807000001