Variation in incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus: time series of Mexican adolescents
Por:
Hernández-Montoya D., Soriano-Flores A., Esparza-Aguilar M., Benjet C., Llanes-Díaz N.
Publicada:
1 feb 2019
Ahead of Print:
1 ene 2018
Categoría:
Epidemiology
Resumen:
Purpose: To study temporal changes in the cumulative incidence (CI) of type 2 diabetes mellitus during early and late adolescence from 2003 to 2013. Methods: This was an ecologic, analytical study of trends over time. Data were weekly reports of new cases (General Directorate of Epidemiology). Specific CI was calculated and standardized by age using the direct method (WHO). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models offering a better fit to the observed series were calculated and controlled by intentional screening. Structural break point analysis was performed. Results: The CI was lower in younger adolescents than in older adolescents. In early adolescence, the incidence was similar in both sexes and stable over time [Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average female: (2,0,2)(0,0,0), male: (1,0,1)(0,0,0); P <.001], whereas in late adolescence, the female incidence was higher than the male incidence and showed a linear increase [female: (1,1,2)(1,0,0), male: (1,0,1)(0,0,0); P <.001)]. The female series showed two structural break points, in 2010 and 2012. The male early adolescent series showed one break point in 2011. Conclusions: Although there was an increase in the CI of type 2 diabetes mellitus during the study period, only the female late adolescence series showed an epidemiologically significant linear trend. There was also a brief, limited rise between 2010 and 2012 that affected all adolescents. This suggests that the disease may be triggered by specific events. © 2018 Elsevier Inc.
Filiaciones:
Hernández-Montoya D.:
Department of Epidemiology Research, National Institute of Pediatrics, Insurgentes Sur 3700C, Insurgentes Cuicuilco, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, C.P.04530, Mexico
Natl Inst Pediat, Dept Epidemiol Res, Insurgentes Sur 3700C, Ciudad De Mexico 04530, Mexico
Soriano-Flores A.:
Faculty of Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Circuito Exterior s/n, Cd. Universitaria, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, C.P.04510, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Sci, Circuito Exterior S-N,Cd Univ, Ciudad De Mexico 04510, DF, Mexico
Esparza-Aguilar M.:
Department of Epidemiology Research, National Institute of Pediatrics, Insurgentes Sur 3700C, Insurgentes Cuicuilco, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, C.P.04530, Mexico
Natl Inst Pediat, Dept Epidemiol Res, Insurgentes Sur 3700C, Ciudad De Mexico 04530, Mexico
Benjet C.:
Division of Epidemiological and Psicosocial Research, National Institute of Psychiatry “Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz”, Calzada México-Xochimilco 101 Col. San Lorenzo Huipulco, Tlalpan, Ciudad de México, C.P.14370, Mexico
Natl Inst Psychiat Ramon de la Fuente Muniz, Div Epidemiol & Psicosocial Res, Calzada Mexico Xochimilco 101 Col San Lorenzo, Ciudad De Mexico 14370, Mexico
Llanes-Díaz N.:
Department of Epidemiology Research, National Council of Sciences and Technology-National Institute of Pediatrics, Insurgentes Sur 3700C, Insurgentes Cuicuilco, Coyoacán, Ciudad de México, C.P.04530, Mexico
Natl Council Sci & Technol, Nat Inst Pediat, Dept Epidemiol Res, Insurgentes Sur 3700C, Ciudad De Mexico 04530, Mexico
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