MAIZE (Zea mays L.) YIELDS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN THE REGION OF LA ANTIGUA, VERACRUZ, MEXICO
Por:
Guajardo-Panes, Rafael A., Granados-Ramirez, Guadalupe R., Sanchez-Cohen, Ignacio, Barradas-Miranda, Victor L., Gomez-Rojas, Juan C., Diaz-Padilla, Gabriel
Publicada:
1 jul 2018
Resumen:
Climate change will modify the production and distribution of plant
species, which is why implementing adaptation plans to minimize its
effects, as well as to reduce impacts on food security, should be
considered. This study assessed the variation of maize (Zea mayz L.)
yields under rainfed conditions wider climate change scenarios, for the
spring-summer cycle in the period of 2011 to 2030, in the Rural
Development District of La Antigua, Veracruz, Mexico. The possible
variations in maize production concerning current climate conditions
were analyzed in areas with favorable conditions for the development of
this crop. The logical-spatial coherence and homogeneity were verified
with daily records of precipitation and temperature from 40
climatological stations of the National Meteorological Service. Missing
data were estimated with ClimGen, climate series were generated with
Lars WG, crop yields were evaluated for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 using a
water balance simulation model (SICTOD), and the potentially vulnerable
zones were defined through spatial interpolation of yields. Maize yields
in the RDD La Antigua for each climate change scenario were different
from the present ones (p=0.666); in the spatial scope, they could affect
7 % of the surface with conditions for maize production under scenario
Bl. Under the scenarios AIB and Al, 94 % of the surfaces with
conditions for maize production would be affected. Yields can be
maintained, but they could come to vary in space. The information can be
used to develop projects of climate change adaptation, with the
participation of agricultural producers, climate change managers, or
others, with actions like crop substitution and new varieties, and to
reprogram agricultural tasks.
Filiaciones:
Guajardo-Panes, Rafael A.:
INIFAP, Campo Expt Cotaxtla, Km 3-5 Carretera Xalapa Veracruz,Colonia Animas, Xalapa 91190, Veracruz, Mexico
Granados-Ramirez, Guadalupe R.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Circuito Exterior S-N,Cd Univ, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
Sanchez-Cohen, Ignacio:
INIFAP RASPA, Canal Sacramento Km 6-5,Zona Ind 4ta Etapa, Gomez Palacio 35140, Durango, Mexico
Barradas-Miranda, Victor L.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ecol, Circuito Exterior S-N,Cd Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
Gomez-Rojas, Juan C.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Colegio Geog, Circuito Exterior S-N,Cd Univ, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
Diaz-Padilla, Gabriel:
INIFAP, Campo Expt Cotaxtla, Km 3-5 Carr Xalapa Veracruz,Col Animas, Xalapa 91190, Veracruz, Mexico
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