Forecasting Summertime Surface Temperature and Precipitation in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area: Sensitivity of the WRF Model to Land Cover Changes
Por:
López-Bravo C., Caetano E., Magaña V.
Publicada:
5 feb 2018
Categoría:
Earth and planetary sciences (miscellaneous)
Resumen:
Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe hydrometeorological
events in recent decades in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area have
motivated the development of weather warning systems. The weather
forecasting system for this region was evaluated in sensitivity studies
using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for July 2014, a
summer time month. It was found that changes in the extent of the urban
area and associated changes in thermodynamic and dynamic variables have
induced local circulations that affect the diurnal cycles of
temperature, precipitation, and wind fields. A newly implemented
configuration [land cover update and Four-Dimensional Data
Assimilation (FDDA)] of the WRF model has improved the adjustment of the
precipitation field to the orography. However, errors related to the
depiction of convection due to parameterizations and microphysics
remains a source of uncertainty in weather forecasting in this region.
Filiaciones:
López-Bravo C.:
College of Geography, FFyL, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Coyoacan, Mexico
Caetano E.:
Instituto de Geografía, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Coyoacan, Mexico
Magaña V.:
Instituto de Geografía, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Coyoacan, Mexico
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