Las inundaciones en un marco de incertidumbre climática
Por:
Arreguín-Cortés F.I., López-Pérez M., Marengo-Mogollón H.
Publicada:
1 ene 2016
Resumen:
Losses from events occurring on the planet in the year 2015 (1060 cases) are described, obtained by the Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, among which hydrological (floods and mass movement of land) and climate (extreme temperatures, droughts occur and fires) are highlighted due to the quantity, but it is also a notable increase in hydrological events in two and a half times in the period 1980-2012. Several factors affect the increased flooding, among them are the lack of land use planning and the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle. The types of damage that causes (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) flood and the complexity of calculating them are discussed. In the case of Mexico, a flood risk map is presented as well as its associated costs from 2000 to 2014 according to the National Center for Disaster Prevention. Also a municipal risk map considering rain and tropical cyclones in Mexico, the Water Vulnerability to Climate Change Atlas prepared by the Mexican Water Technology Institute, according to the scenarios presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2012 and some ideas on the attention to these problems. Proposing that flood control programs should be based on the IFM programme which include reduction of uncertainty regarding hydrometeorological, pluviographic information, hydrological monitoring in rivers and especially climate projections, supporting these programs with highly qualified human resources, and addressing the dam safety operation for spillways with hydrological risk.
Filiaciones:
Arreguín-Cortés F.I.:
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología Del Agua, Paseo Cuauhnáhuac 8532, colonia Progreso, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
López-Pérez M.:
Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología Del Agua, Paseo Cuauhnáhuac 8532, colonia Progreso, Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico
Marengo-Mogollón H.:
International Commission on Large Dams, Mexico
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