Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection
Por:
Zarza, Heliot, Martinez-Meyer, Enrique, Suzan, Gerardo, Ceballos, Gerardo
Publicada:
1 jul 2017
Resumen:
Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting
emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these
changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation
strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in
tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico,
the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to
this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the
distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and
examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have
on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative
maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential
distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results
showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the
current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of
bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also
have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic
envelope models predicted that by 2050-2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 %
of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of
Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our
study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial
patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an
important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological
Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing
holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico.
Filiaciones:
Zarza, Heliot:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ecol, Mexico City 04510, Cdmx, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Med Vet & Zootecnia, Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
Univ Autonoma Metropolitana Unidad Lerma, CBS, Dept Ciencias Ambientales, Lerma De Villada 52005, Edo De Mwxico, Mexico
Martinez-Meyer, Enrique:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biol, Dept Zool, Mexico City 04510, Cdmx, Mexico
Suzan, Gerardo:
Ctr Cambio Global & Sustentabilidad Sureste AC, Mexico City 86080, Villahermosa, Mexico
Ceballos, Gerardo:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ecol, Mexico City 04510, Cdmx, Mexico
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