EXTRACTING AND ANALYZING THE WARMING TREND IN GLOBAL AND HEMISPHERIC TEMPERATURES
Por:
Estrada, Francisco, Perron, Pierre
Publicada:
1 sep 2017
Resumen:
This article offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based
on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It
shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best
represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes
occurring in the slope of their trend functions and that they share a
common secular trend and common breaks, largely determined by the
anthropogenic radiative forcing. The common nonlinear trend is isolated,
and further evidence on the possible causes of the current slowdown in
warming is presented. Our analysis offers interesting results in
relation to the recent literature. Changes in the anthropogenic forcings
are directly responsible for the hiatus, while natural variability modes
such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, as well as new
temperature adjustments, contribute to weaken the signal. In other
words, natural variability and data adjustments do not explain in any
way the hiatus; they simply mask its presence.
Filiaciones:
Estrada, Francisco:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Ciudad Univ, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
Perron, Pierre:
Boston Univ, Dept Econ, 270 Bay State Rd, Boston, MA 02215 USA
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