Statistical analysis of the sustained lava dome emplacement and destruction processes at Popocatepetl volcano, Central Mexico
Por:
Teresa Mendoza-Rosas, Ana, Gomez-Vazquez, Angel, de la Cruz-Reyna, Servando
Publicada:
1 jun 2017
Categoría:
Geochemistry and petrology
Resumen:
Popocatepetl volcano reawakened in 1994 after nearly 70 years of
quiescence. Between 1996 and 2015, a succession of at least 38 lava
domes have been irregularly emplaced and destroyed, with each dome
reaching particular volumes at specific emplacement rates. The
complexity of this sequence is analyzed using statistical methods in an
attempt to gain insight into the physics and dynamics of the lava dome
emplacement and destruction process and to objectively assess the
hazards related to that volcano. The time series of emplacements, dome
residences, lava effusion lulls, and emplaced dome volumes and
thicknesses are modeled using the simple exponential and Weibull
distributions, the compound non-homogeneous generalized Pareto-Poisson
process (NHPPP), and the mixture of exponentials distribution (MOED).
The statistical analysis reveals that the sequence of dome emplacements
is a non-stationary, self-regulating process most likely controlled by
the balance between buoyancydriven magma ascent and volatile exsolution
crystallization. This balance has supported the sustained effusive
activity for decades and may persist for an undetermined amount of time.
However, the eruptive history of Popocatpetl includes major Plinian
phases that may have resulted from a breach in that balance. Certain
criteria to recognize such breaching conditions are inferred from this
statistical analysis.
Filiaciones:
Teresa Mendoza-Rosas, Ana:
CONACYT Ctr Ingn & Desarrollo Ind CIDESI, Ave Playa Pie Cuesta 702 San Pablo, Queretaro, Qro, Mexico
Gomez-Vazquez, Angel:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Posgrad Ciencias Tierra, C Univ CDMX, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
de la Cruz-Reyna, Servando:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, C Univ CDMX, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
|