Calculating travel times and arrival speeds of CMEs to Earth: An analytic tool for space weather forecasting
Por:
Corona-Romero, P., Gonzalez-Esparza, J. A., Perez-Alanis, C. A., Aguilar-Rodriguez, E., de-la-Luz, V., Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.
Publicada:
1 mar 2017
Categoría:
Atmospheric science
Resumen:
Coronal mass ejections (CME) are one of the most important phenomena
derived from solar activity that potentially perturb space weather of
Earth. In this work we present a semiempirical arrival forecasting tool
for Earth-directed halo CMEs. This tool combines the piston shock model
and an empirical relationship to estimate in situ arrivals of halo CMEs.
The empirical relationship uses the initial conditions of CMEs to
calculate the value of free parameter of the piston shock model, a
parameter which is closely related to the initial inertia of CMEs. Such
a value will let the model to simultaneously approximate the travel time
and arrival speed of CMEs (i.e., CME arrivals). We test the forecasting
capabilities of our model and its empirical relationship by calculating
the arrivals of 40 halo CMEs detected during the period of 1995-2015.
Our results indicate that, together, the piston shock model and its
empirical relationship approximate CME arrivals with average errors of
7h for travel times, and 100kms(-1) for arrival speeds. Our results show
that our model is suitable for arrival forecasting of isolated events
propagating through quiet interplanetary medium.
Filiaciones:
Corona-Romero, P.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Serv Mexico SCiESMEX, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, CONACYT, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Natl Lab LANCE, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Gonzalez-Esparza, J. A.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Serv Mexico SCiESMEX, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Natl Lab LANCE, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Perez-Alanis, C. A.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Posgrad Ciencias Tierra, Mexico City, DF, Mexico
Aguilar-Rodriguez, E.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Serv Mexico SCiESMEX, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Natl Lab LANCE, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
de-la-Luz, V.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Serv Mexico SCiESMEX, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, CONACYT, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Natl Lab LANCE, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Mejia-Ambriz, J. C.:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Serv Mexico SCiESMEX, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, CONACYT, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geofis, Unidad Michoacan, Space Weather Natl Lab LANCE, Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico
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