Analysis of the effects of climate change on plant communities and mammals in Mexico
Por:
Trejo, I, Martinez-Meyer, E, Calixto-Perez, E, Sanchez-Colon, S, de la Torre, RV
Publicada:
1 ene 2011
Categoría:
Atmospheric Science
Resumen:
The current study proposes two methodological approaches for analyzing the effects of climate change on biodiversity, one at the level of bioclimatic zone, and the other one at the species level. Three general circulation models were applied to nine bioclimatic zones and 61 species of mammals in Mexico for the 2050 time horizon: ECHAM5/MPI, UKHA DGEM1 and GFDL CM 2.0, each one with two emissions scenarios, A2 and B2. In the case of bioclimatic zones a multinomial logit model was used based on data from surveys of vegetation, climate data and soil information in order to obtain probabilities of occurrence. In the case of mammals, ecological niche models were made for each of them as well as models of their distribution in the country within each bioclimatic zone. The results show that ECHAM and Hadley coincide with tendencies towards drier conditions mainly in northern Mexico, in contrast with GDFL with less severe results. Differences are noticed according to the applied emission scena
Filiaciones:
Trejo, I:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
Martinez-Meyer, E:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biol, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
Calixto-Perez, E:
Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biol, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico
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